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Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?

In this study, the asymmetric Granger causality relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty index is examined by controlling inflation, consumer confidence index, and industrial production for the period 2000M1 and 2020M1 in Italy. To the best of our knowledge, the current s...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Uzuner, Gizem, Ghosh, Sudeshna
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7668006/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33223570
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11135-020-01074-7
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author Uzuner, Gizem
Ghosh, Sudeshna
author_facet Uzuner, Gizem
Ghosh, Sudeshna
author_sort Uzuner, Gizem
collection PubMed
description In this study, the asymmetric Granger causality relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty index is examined by controlling inflation, consumer confidence index, and industrial production for the period 2000M1 and 2020M1 in Italy. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is one of the few studies to investigate the relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty in an asymmetric framework. The empirical results show that using the Granger causality test in a linear framework causes bias results due to misspecification. Therefore, the study relies on asymmetric Granger causality test results which reveal that the positive shock of world pandemic uncertainty Granger causes a negative shock of tourist arrivals. It is suggested that international tourist arrivals are sensitive to external shocks such as pandemics and in such instances the government of the concerned country can insulate the tourism-service and hospitality industry against the shocks by developing strategies to promote full information between all stakeholders.
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spelling pubmed-76680062020-11-16 Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy? Uzuner, Gizem Ghosh, Sudeshna Qual Quant Article In this study, the asymmetric Granger causality relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty index is examined by controlling inflation, consumer confidence index, and industrial production for the period 2000M1 and 2020M1 in Italy. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is one of the few studies to investigate the relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty in an asymmetric framework. The empirical results show that using the Granger causality test in a linear framework causes bias results due to misspecification. Therefore, the study relies on asymmetric Granger causality test results which reveal that the positive shock of world pandemic uncertainty Granger causes a negative shock of tourist arrivals. It is suggested that international tourist arrivals are sensitive to external shocks such as pandemics and in such instances the government of the concerned country can insulate the tourism-service and hospitality industry against the shocks by developing strategies to promote full information between all stakeholders. Springer Netherlands 2020-11-16 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7668006/ /pubmed/33223570 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11135-020-01074-7 Text en © Springer Nature B.V. 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Uzuner, Gizem
Ghosh, Sudeshna
Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?
title Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?
title_full Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?
title_fullStr Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?
title_full_unstemmed Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?
title_short Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?
title_sort do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in italy?
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7668006/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33223570
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11135-020-01074-7
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