Cargando…

Predictive models on COVID 19: What Africans should do?

In this study, predictive models are proposed to accurately estimate the confirmed cases and deaths due to of Corona virus 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa. The study proposed the predictive models to determine the spatial and temporal pattern of COVID 19 in Africa. The result of the study has shown that t...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Likassa, Habte Tadesse, Xain, Wen, Tang, Xuan, Gobebo, Gizachew
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7670905/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33225115
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.015
_version_ 1783610829587873792
author Likassa, Habte Tadesse
Xain, Wen
Tang, Xuan
Gobebo, Gizachew
author_facet Likassa, Habte Tadesse
Xain, Wen
Tang, Xuan
Gobebo, Gizachew
author_sort Likassa, Habte Tadesse
collection PubMed
description In this study, predictive models are proposed to accurately estimate the confirmed cases and deaths due to of Corona virus 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa. The study proposed the predictive models to determine the spatial and temporal pattern of COVID 19 in Africa. The result of the study has shown that the spatial and temporal pattern of the pandemic is varying across in the study area. The result has shown that cubic model is best outperforming compared to the other six families of exponentials ([Formula: see text]. The adopted cubic algorithm is more robust in predicting the confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID 19. The cubic algorithm is more superior to the state of the art of the works based on the world health organization data. This also entails the best way to mitigate the expansion of COVID 19 is through persistent and strict self-isolation. This pandemic will sustain to grow up, and peak to the highest for which a strong care and public health interventions practically implemented. It is highly recommended for Africans must go beyond theory preparations implementations practically through the public interventions.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7670905
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2020
publisher KeAi Publishing
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-76709052020-11-18 Predictive models on COVID 19: What Africans should do? Likassa, Habte Tadesse Xain, Wen Tang, Xuan Gobebo, Gizachew Infect Dis Model Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu In this study, predictive models are proposed to accurately estimate the confirmed cases and deaths due to of Corona virus 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa. The study proposed the predictive models to determine the spatial and temporal pattern of COVID 19 in Africa. The result of the study has shown that the spatial and temporal pattern of the pandemic is varying across in the study area. The result has shown that cubic model is best outperforming compared to the other six families of exponentials ([Formula: see text]. The adopted cubic algorithm is more robust in predicting the confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID 19. The cubic algorithm is more superior to the state of the art of the works based on the world health organization data. This also entails the best way to mitigate the expansion of COVID 19 is through persistent and strict self-isolation. This pandemic will sustain to grow up, and peak to the highest for which a strong care and public health interventions practically implemented. It is highly recommended for Africans must go beyond theory preparations implementations practically through the public interventions. KeAi Publishing 2020-11-17 /pmc/articles/PMC7670905/ /pubmed/33225115 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.015 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
Likassa, Habte Tadesse
Xain, Wen
Tang, Xuan
Gobebo, Gizachew
Predictive models on COVID 19: What Africans should do?
title Predictive models on COVID 19: What Africans should do?
title_full Predictive models on COVID 19: What Africans should do?
title_fullStr Predictive models on COVID 19: What Africans should do?
title_full_unstemmed Predictive models on COVID 19: What Africans should do?
title_short Predictive models on COVID 19: What Africans should do?
title_sort predictive models on covid 19: what africans should do?
topic Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7670905/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33225115
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.015
work_keys_str_mv AT likassahabtetadesse predictivemodelsoncovid19whatafricansshoulddo
AT xainwen predictivemodelsoncovid19whatafricansshoulddo
AT tangxuan predictivemodelsoncovid19whatafricansshoulddo
AT gobebogizachew predictivemodelsoncovid19whatafricansshoulddo