Cargando…
Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers
The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections....
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7672108/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33203883 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5 |
_version_ | 1783611061678637056 |
---|---|
author | Khan, Shfaqat A. Bjørk, Anders A. Bamber, Jonathan L. Morlighem, Mathieu Bevis, Michael Kjær, Kurt H. Mouginot, Jérémie Løkkegaard, Anja Holland, David M. Aschwanden, Andy Zhang, Bao Helm, Veit Korsgaard, Niels J. Colgan, William Larsen, Nicolaj K. Liu, Lin Hansen, Karina Barletta, Valentina Dahl-Jensen, Trine S. Søndergaard, Anne Sofie Csatho, Beata M. Sasgen, Ingo Box, Jason Schenk, Toni |
author_facet | Khan, Shfaqat A. Bjørk, Anders A. Bamber, Jonathan L. Morlighem, Mathieu Bevis, Michael Kjær, Kurt H. Mouginot, Jérémie Løkkegaard, Anja Holland, David M. Aschwanden, Andy Zhang, Bao Helm, Veit Korsgaard, Niels J. Colgan, William Larsen, Nicolaj K. Liu, Lin Hansen, Karina Barletta, Valentina Dahl-Jensen, Trine S. Søndergaard, Anne Sofie Csatho, Beata M. Sasgen, Ingo Box, Jason Schenk, Toni |
author_sort | Khan, Shfaqat A. |
collection | PubMed |
description | The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7672108 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-76721082020-11-24 Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers Khan, Shfaqat A. Bjørk, Anders A. Bamber, Jonathan L. Morlighem, Mathieu Bevis, Michael Kjær, Kurt H. Mouginot, Jérémie Løkkegaard, Anja Holland, David M. Aschwanden, Andy Zhang, Bao Helm, Veit Korsgaard, Niels J. Colgan, William Larsen, Nicolaj K. Liu, Lin Hansen, Karina Barletta, Valentina Dahl-Jensen, Trine S. Søndergaard, Anne Sofie Csatho, Beata M. Sasgen, Ingo Box, Jason Schenk, Toni Nat Commun Article The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-11-17 /pmc/articles/PMC7672108/ /pubmed/33203883 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Khan, Shfaqat A. Bjørk, Anders A. Bamber, Jonathan L. Morlighem, Mathieu Bevis, Michael Kjær, Kurt H. Mouginot, Jérémie Løkkegaard, Anja Holland, David M. Aschwanden, Andy Zhang, Bao Helm, Veit Korsgaard, Niels J. Colgan, William Larsen, Nicolaj K. Liu, Lin Hansen, Karina Barletta, Valentina Dahl-Jensen, Trine S. Søndergaard, Anne Sofie Csatho, Beata M. Sasgen, Ingo Box, Jason Schenk, Toni Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers |
title | Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers |
title_full | Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers |
title_fullStr | Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers |
title_full_unstemmed | Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers |
title_short | Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers |
title_sort | centennial response of greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7672108/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33203883 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT khanshfaqata centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT bjørkandersa centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT bamberjonathanl centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT morlighemmathieu centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT bevismichael centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT kjærkurth centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT mouginotjeremie centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT løkkegaardanja centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT hollanddavidm centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT aschwandenandy centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT zhangbao centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT helmveit centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT korsgaardnielsj centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT colganwilliam centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT larsennicolajk centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT liulin centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT hansenkarina centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT barlettavalentina centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT dahljensentrines centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT søndergaardannesofie centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT csathobeatam centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT sasgeningo centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT boxjason centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers AT schenktoni centennialresponseofgreenlandsthreelargestoutletglaciers |