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Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: JointCalc model development and validation using the National Joint Registry and the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register

AIMS: To develop and validate patient-centred algorithms that estimate individual risk of death over the first year after elective joint arthroplasty surgery for osteoarthritis. METHODS: A total of 763,213 hip and knee joint arthroplasty episodes recorded in the National Joint Registry for England a...

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Autores principales: Trela-Larsen, Lea, Kroken, Gard, Bartz-Johannessen, Christoffer, Sayers, Adrian, Aram, Parham, McCloskey, Eugene, Kadirkamanathan, Visakan, Blom, Ashley W., Lie, Stein Atle, Furnes, Ove Nord, Wilkinson, J. Mark
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7672327/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33179531
http://dx.doi.org/10.1302/2046-3758.911.BJR-2020-0343.R1
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author Trela-Larsen, Lea
Kroken, Gard
Bartz-Johannessen, Christoffer
Sayers, Adrian
Aram, Parham
McCloskey, Eugene
Kadirkamanathan, Visakan
Blom, Ashley W.
Lie, Stein Atle
Furnes, Ove Nord
Wilkinson, J. Mark
author_facet Trela-Larsen, Lea
Kroken, Gard
Bartz-Johannessen, Christoffer
Sayers, Adrian
Aram, Parham
McCloskey, Eugene
Kadirkamanathan, Visakan
Blom, Ashley W.
Lie, Stein Atle
Furnes, Ove Nord
Wilkinson, J. Mark
author_sort Trela-Larsen, Lea
collection PubMed
description AIMS: To develop and validate patient-centred algorithms that estimate individual risk of death over the first year after elective joint arthroplasty surgery for osteoarthritis. METHODS: A total of 763,213 hip and knee joint arthroplasty episodes recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) and 105,407 episodes from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register were used to model individual mortality risk over the first year after surgery using flexible parametric survival regression. RESULTS: The one-year mortality rates in the NJR were 10.8 and 8.9 per 1,000 patient-years after hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively. The Norwegian mortality rates were 9.1 and 6.0 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively. The strongest predictors of death in the final models were age, sex, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Exposure variables related to the intervention, with the exception of knee arthroplasty type, did not add discrimination over patient factors alone. Discrimination was good in both cohorts, with c-indices above 0.76 for the hip and above 0.70 for the knee. Time-dependent Brier scores indicated appropriate estimation of the mortality rate (≤ 0.01, all models). CONCLUSION: Simple demographic and clinical information may be used to calculate an individualized estimation for one-year mortality risk after hip or knee arthroplasty (https://jointcalc.shef.ac.uk). These models may be used to provide patients with an estimate of the risk of mortality after joint arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):808–820.
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spelling pubmed-76723272020-11-19 Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: JointCalc model development and validation using the National Joint Registry and the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register Trela-Larsen, Lea Kroken, Gard Bartz-Johannessen, Christoffer Sayers, Adrian Aram, Parham McCloskey, Eugene Kadirkamanathan, Visakan Blom, Ashley W. Lie, Stein Atle Furnes, Ove Nord Wilkinson, J. Mark Bone Joint Res Arthroplasty AIMS: To develop and validate patient-centred algorithms that estimate individual risk of death over the first year after elective joint arthroplasty surgery for osteoarthritis. METHODS: A total of 763,213 hip and knee joint arthroplasty episodes recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) and 105,407 episodes from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register were used to model individual mortality risk over the first year after surgery using flexible parametric survival regression. RESULTS: The one-year mortality rates in the NJR were 10.8 and 8.9 per 1,000 patient-years after hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively. The Norwegian mortality rates were 9.1 and 6.0 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively. The strongest predictors of death in the final models were age, sex, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Exposure variables related to the intervention, with the exception of knee arthroplasty type, did not add discrimination over patient factors alone. Discrimination was good in both cohorts, with c-indices above 0.76 for the hip and above 0.70 for the knee. Time-dependent Brier scores indicated appropriate estimation of the mortality rate (≤ 0.01, all models). CONCLUSION: Simple demographic and clinical information may be used to calculate an individualized estimation for one-year mortality risk after hip or knee arthroplasty (https://jointcalc.shef.ac.uk). These models may be used to provide patients with an estimate of the risk of mortality after joint arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):808–820. The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery 2020-11-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7672327/ /pubmed/33179531 http://dx.doi.org/10.1302/2046-3758.911.BJR-2020-0343.R1 Text en © 2020 Author(s) et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence, which permits the copying and redistribution of the work only, and provided the original author and source are credited. See https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
spellingShingle Arthroplasty
Trela-Larsen, Lea
Kroken, Gard
Bartz-Johannessen, Christoffer
Sayers, Adrian
Aram, Parham
McCloskey, Eugene
Kadirkamanathan, Visakan
Blom, Ashley W.
Lie, Stein Atle
Furnes, Ove Nord
Wilkinson, J. Mark
Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: JointCalc model development and validation using the National Joint Registry and the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register
title Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: JointCalc model development and validation using the National Joint Registry and the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register
title_full Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: JointCalc model development and validation using the National Joint Registry and the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register
title_fullStr Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: JointCalc model development and validation using the National Joint Registry and the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register
title_full_unstemmed Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: JointCalc model development and validation using the National Joint Registry and the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register
title_short Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: JointCalc model development and validation using the National Joint Registry and the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register
title_sort personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: jointcalc model development and validation using the national joint registry and the norwegian arthroplasty register
topic Arthroplasty
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7672327/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33179531
http://dx.doi.org/10.1302/2046-3758.911.BJR-2020-0343.R1
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