Associations with kidney transplant survival and eGFR decline in children and young adults in the United Kingdom: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Although young adulthood is associated with transplant loss, many studies do not examine eGFR decline. We aimed to establish clinical risk factors to identify where early intervention might prevent subsequent adverse transplant outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant Registry data, including patients aged < 30 years transplanted 1998–2014. Associations with death-censored graft failure were investigated with multivariable Cox proportional hazards. Multivariable linear regression was used to establish associations with eGFR slope gradients calculated over the last 5 years of observation per individual. RESULTS: The cohort (n = 5121, of whom n = 371 received another transplant) was 61% male, 80% White and 36% had structural disease. Live donation occurred in 48%. There were 1371 graft failures and 145 deaths with a functioning graft over a 39,541-year risk period. Median follow-up was 7 years. Fifteen-year graft survival was 60.2% (95% CI 58.1, 62.3). Risk associations observed in both graft loss and eGFR decline analyses included female sex, glomerular diseases, Black ethnicity and young adulthood (15–19-year and 20–24-year age groups, compared to 25–29 years). A higher initial eGFR was associated with less risk of graft loss but faster eGFR decline. For each additional 10 mL/min/1.73m(2) initial eGFR, the hazard ratio for graft loss was 0.82 (95% CI 0.79, 0.86), p < 0.0001. However, compared to < 60 mL/min/1.73m(2), higher initial eGFR was associated with faster eGFR decline (> 90 mL/min/1.73m(2); − 3.55 mL/min/1.73m(2)/year (95% CI -4.37, − 2.72), p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, young adulthood is a key risk factor for transplant loss and eGFR decline for UK children and young adults. This study has an extended follow-up period and confirms common risk associations for graft loss and eGFR decline, including female sex, Black ethnicity and glomerular diseases. A higher initial eGFR was associated with less risk of graft loss but faster rate of eGFR decline. Identification of children at risk of faster rate of eGFR decline may enable early intervention to prolong graft survival. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-020-02156-2.