Cargando…
The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States
The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navi...
Autores principales: | , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7673535/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33206721 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242476 |
_version_ | 1783611338803642368 |
---|---|
author | Liu, Luyu Miller, Harvey J. Scheff, Jonathan |
author_facet | Liu, Luyu Miller, Harvey J. Scheff, Jonathan |
author_sort | Liu, Luyu |
collection | PubMed |
description | The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters: base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7673535 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-76735352020-11-19 The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States Liu, Luyu Miller, Harvey J. Scheff, Jonathan PLoS One Research Article The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters: base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic. Public Library of Science 2020-11-18 /pmc/articles/PMC7673535/ /pubmed/33206721 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242476 Text en © 2020 Liu et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Liu, Luyu Miller, Harvey J. Scheff, Jonathan The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States |
title | The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States |
title_full | The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States |
title_fullStr | The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States |
title_full_unstemmed | The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States |
title_short | The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States |
title_sort | impacts of covid-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the united states |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7673535/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33206721 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242476 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT liuluyu theimpactsofcovid19pandemiconpublictransitdemandintheunitedstates AT millerharveyj theimpactsofcovid19pandemiconpublictransitdemandintheunitedstates AT scheffjonathan theimpactsofcovid19pandemiconpublictransitdemandintheunitedstates AT liuluyu impactsofcovid19pandemiconpublictransitdemandintheunitedstates AT millerharveyj impactsofcovid19pandemiconpublictransitdemandintheunitedstates AT scheffjonathan impactsofcovid19pandemiconpublictransitdemandintheunitedstates |