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The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Liu, Luyu, Miller, Harvey J., Scheff, Jonathan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7673535/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33206721
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242476
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author Liu, Luyu
Miller, Harvey J.
Scheff, Jonathan
author_facet Liu, Luyu
Miller, Harvey J.
Scheff, Jonathan
author_sort Liu, Luyu
collection PubMed
description The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters: base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic.
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spelling pubmed-76735352020-11-19 The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States Liu, Luyu Miller, Harvey J. Scheff, Jonathan PLoS One Research Article The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters: base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic. Public Library of Science 2020-11-18 /pmc/articles/PMC7673535/ /pubmed/33206721 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242476 Text en © 2020 Liu et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Liu, Luyu
Miller, Harvey J.
Scheff, Jonathan
The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States
title The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States
title_full The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States
title_fullStr The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States
title_full_unstemmed The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States
title_short The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States
title_sort impacts of covid-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the united states
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7673535/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33206721
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242476
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