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Drawing transmission graphs for COVID-19 in the perspective of network science
When we consider a probability distribution about how many COVID-19-infected people will transmit the disease, two points become important. First, there could be super-spreaders in these distributions/networks and second, the Pareto principle could be valid in these distributions/networks regarding...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cambridge University Press
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7674790/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33143782 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820002654 |
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author | Gürsakal, N. Batmaz, B. Aktuna, G. |
author_facet | Gürsakal, N. Batmaz, B. Aktuna, G. |
author_sort | Gürsakal, N. |
collection | PubMed |
description | When we consider a probability distribution about how many COVID-19-infected people will transmit the disease, two points become important. First, there could be super-spreaders in these distributions/networks and second, the Pareto principle could be valid in these distributions/networks regarding estimation that 20% of cases were responsible for 80% of local transmission. When we accept that these two points are valid, the distribution of transmission becomes a discrete Pareto distribution, which is a kind of power law. Having such a transmission distribution, then we can simulate COVID-19 networks and find super-spreaders using the centricity measurements in these networks. In this research, in the first we transformed a transmission distribution of statistics and epidemiology into a transmission network of network science and second we try to determine who the super-spreaders are by using this network and eigenvalue centrality measure. We underline that determination of transmission probability distribution is a very important point in the analysis of the epidemic and determining the precautions to be taken. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7674790 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Cambridge University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-76747902020-11-19 Drawing transmission graphs for COVID-19 in the perspective of network science Gürsakal, N. Batmaz, B. Aktuna, G. Epidemiol Infect Original Paper When we consider a probability distribution about how many COVID-19-infected people will transmit the disease, two points become important. First, there could be super-spreaders in these distributions/networks and second, the Pareto principle could be valid in these distributions/networks regarding estimation that 20% of cases were responsible for 80% of local transmission. When we accept that these two points are valid, the distribution of transmission becomes a discrete Pareto distribution, which is a kind of power law. Having such a transmission distribution, then we can simulate COVID-19 networks and find super-spreaders using the centricity measurements in these networks. In this research, in the first we transformed a transmission distribution of statistics and epidemiology into a transmission network of network science and second we try to determine who the super-spreaders are by using this network and eigenvalue centrality measure. We underline that determination of transmission probability distribution is a very important point in the analysis of the epidemic and determining the precautions to be taken. Cambridge University Press 2020-11-04 /pmc/articles/PMC7674790/ /pubmed/33143782 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820002654 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Original Paper Gürsakal, N. Batmaz, B. Aktuna, G. Drawing transmission graphs for COVID-19 in the perspective of network science |
title | Drawing transmission graphs for COVID-19 in the perspective of network science |
title_full | Drawing transmission graphs for COVID-19 in the perspective of network science |
title_fullStr | Drawing transmission graphs for COVID-19 in the perspective of network science |
title_full_unstemmed | Drawing transmission graphs for COVID-19 in the perspective of network science |
title_short | Drawing transmission graphs for COVID-19 in the perspective of network science |
title_sort | drawing transmission graphs for covid-19 in the perspective of network science |
topic | Original Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7674790/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33143782 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820002654 |
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