The epidemiology, clinical presentation, and predictors of severe Tick-borne encephalitis in Lithuania, a highly endemic country: A retrospective study of 1040 patients

INTRODUCTION: In recent decades, the incidence of Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has been increasing and posing a growing health problem because of the high costs to the healthcare system and society. The clinical manifestations are well studied but there is a lack of research analyzing the severity of the disease. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiology and clinical presentation of severe TBE, to identify the predictors for a severe disease course, and also predictors for meningoencephalomyelitic and severe meningoencephalitic/encephalitic forms. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted in the Center of Infectious Diseases and the Center of Neurology at Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos in the years 2005–2017 to describe the clinical and epidemiological features of TBE in adults. RESULTS: 1040 patients were included in the study. A total of 152/1040 (14.6%) patients had a severe course. The highest proportion of severe cases, reaching 41.2%, was reported in the 70–79 year-old age group. A total of 36/152 (23.7%) severe patients presented meningoencephalomyelitis. Myelitic patients were older, were frequently infected in their living areas, and usually reported a monophasic disease course compared with severe meningoencephalitic/encephalitic patients. Severe meningoencephalitic/encephalitic patients, compared with non-severe meningoencephalitic/encephalitic, were older, less often noticed the tick bite, and often had a monophasic course. The sequelae on discharge were observed in 810/1000 (81%) of patients. CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic factors associated with a severe disease course and severe meningoencephalitic form are: older age, comorbidities, a monophasic course, a fever of 40˚C and above, CRP more than 30 mg/l, CSF protein more than 1 g/l, delayed immune response of TBEV IgG, pathological findings in CT. Age above 60 years, presence of CNS disease, bulbar syndrome, pleocytosis 500x10(6)/l and above, and delayed immune response of TBEV IgG are predictors of the most severe myelitic form.