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Characterising West Nile virus epidemiology in Israel using a transmission suitability index

BACKGROUND: Climate is a major factor in the epidemiology of West Nile virus (WNV), a pathogen increasingly pervasive worldwide. Cases increased during 2018 in Israel, the United States and Europe. AIM: We set to retrospectively understand the spatial and temporal determinants of WNV transmission in...

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Autores principales: Lourenço, José, Thompson, Robin N, Thézé, Julien, Obolski, Uri
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7678037/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33213688
http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.46.1900629
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author Lourenço, José
Thompson, Robin N
Thézé, Julien
Obolski, Uri
author_facet Lourenço, José
Thompson, Robin N
Thézé, Julien
Obolski, Uri
author_sort Lourenço, José
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Climate is a major factor in the epidemiology of West Nile virus (WNV), a pathogen increasingly pervasive worldwide. Cases increased during 2018 in Israel, the United States and Europe. AIM: We set to retrospectively understand the spatial and temporal determinants of WNV transmission in Israel, as a case study for the possible effects of climate on virus spread. METHODS: We employed a suitability index to WNV, parameterising it with prior knowledge pertaining to a bird reservoir and Culex species, using local time series of temperature and humidity as inputs. The predicted suitability index was compared with confirmed WNV cases in Israel (2016–2018). RESULTS: The suitability index was highly associated with WNV cases in Israel, with correlation coefficients of 0.91 (p value = 4 × 10(− 5)), 0.68 (p = 0.016) and 0.9 (p = 2 × 10(− 4)) in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. The fluctuations in the number of WNV cases between the years were explained by higher area under the index curve. A new WNV seasonal mode was identified in the south-east of Israel, along the Great Rift Valley, characterised by two yearly peaks (spring and autumn), distinct from the already known single summer peak in the rest of Israel. CONCLUSIONS: By producing a detailed geotemporal estimate of transmission potential and its determinants in Israel, our study promotes a better understanding of WNV epidemiology and has the potential to inform future public health responses. The proposed approach further provides opportunities for retrospective and prospective mechanistic modelling of WNV epidemiology and its associated climatic drivers.
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spelling pubmed-76780372020-11-23 Characterising West Nile virus epidemiology in Israel using a transmission suitability index Lourenço, José Thompson, Robin N Thézé, Julien Obolski, Uri Euro Surveill Research BACKGROUND: Climate is a major factor in the epidemiology of West Nile virus (WNV), a pathogen increasingly pervasive worldwide. Cases increased during 2018 in Israel, the United States and Europe. AIM: We set to retrospectively understand the spatial and temporal determinants of WNV transmission in Israel, as a case study for the possible effects of climate on virus spread. METHODS: We employed a suitability index to WNV, parameterising it with prior knowledge pertaining to a bird reservoir and Culex species, using local time series of temperature and humidity as inputs. The predicted suitability index was compared with confirmed WNV cases in Israel (2016–2018). RESULTS: The suitability index was highly associated with WNV cases in Israel, with correlation coefficients of 0.91 (p value = 4 × 10(− 5)), 0.68 (p = 0.016) and 0.9 (p = 2 × 10(− 4)) in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. The fluctuations in the number of WNV cases between the years were explained by higher area under the index curve. A new WNV seasonal mode was identified in the south-east of Israel, along the Great Rift Valley, characterised by two yearly peaks (spring and autumn), distinct from the already known single summer peak in the rest of Israel. CONCLUSIONS: By producing a detailed geotemporal estimate of transmission potential and its determinants in Israel, our study promotes a better understanding of WNV epidemiology and has the potential to inform future public health responses. The proposed approach further provides opportunities for retrospective and prospective mechanistic modelling of WNV epidemiology and its associated climatic drivers. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2020-11-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7678037/ /pubmed/33213688 http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.46.1900629 Text en This article is copyright of the authors or their affiliated institutions, 2020. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate credit to the source, provide a link to the licence, and indicate if changes were made.
spellingShingle Research
Lourenço, José
Thompson, Robin N
Thézé, Julien
Obolski, Uri
Characterising West Nile virus epidemiology in Israel using a transmission suitability index
title Characterising West Nile virus epidemiology in Israel using a transmission suitability index
title_full Characterising West Nile virus epidemiology in Israel using a transmission suitability index
title_fullStr Characterising West Nile virus epidemiology in Israel using a transmission suitability index
title_full_unstemmed Characterising West Nile virus epidemiology in Israel using a transmission suitability index
title_short Characterising West Nile virus epidemiology in Israel using a transmission suitability index
title_sort characterising west nile virus epidemiology in israel using a transmission suitability index
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7678037/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33213688
http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.46.1900629
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