The optimal alternative for quantifying reference evapotranspiration in climatic sub-regions of Bangladesh

Reference evapotranspiration (ET(o)) is a basic element for hydrological designing and agricultural water resources management. The FAO56 recommended Penman–Monteith (FAO56-PM) formula recognized worldwide as the robust and standard model for calculating ET(o). However, the use of the FAO56-PM model is restricted in some data-scarce regions like Bangladesh. Therefore, it is imperative to find an optimal alternative for estimating ET(o) against FAO56-PM model. This study comprehensively compared the performance of 13 empirical models (Hargreaves–Samani, HargreavesM1, Hargreaves M2, Berti, WMO, Abtew, Irmak 1, Irmak 2, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, Jensen–Haise, Tabari and Turc) by using statistical criteria for 38-years dataset from 1980 to 2017 in Bangladesh. The radiation-based model proposed by Abtew (ET(o,6)) was selected as an optimal alternative in all the sub-regions and whole Bangladesh against FAO56-PM model owing to its high accuracy, reliability in outlining substantial spatiotemporal variations of ET(o), with very well linearly correlation with the FAO56-PM and the least errors. The importance degree analysis of 13 models based on the random forest (RF) also depicted that Abtew (ET(o,6)) is the most reliable and robust model for ET(o) computation in different sub-regions. Validation of the optimal alternative produced the largest correlation coefficient of 0.989 between ET(o,s) and ET(o,6) and confirmed that Abtew (ET(o,6)) is the best suitable method for ET(o) calculation in Bangladesh.