A risk scoring tool for predicting Kenyan women at high risk of contraceptive discontinuation

OBJECTIVE: We developed and validated a pragmatic risk assessment tool for identifying contraceptive discontinuation among Kenyan women who do not desire pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: Within a prospective cohort of contraceptive users, participants were randomly allocated to derivation (n = 558) and validation (n = 186) cohorts. Risk scores were developed by selecting the Cox proportional hazards model with the minimum Akaike information criterion. Predictive performance was evaluated using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: The overall contraceptive discontinuation rate was 36.9 per 100 woman-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 30.3–44.9). The predictors of discontinuation selected for the risk score included use of a short-term method or copper intrauterine device (vs. injectable or implant), method continuation or switch (vs. initiation), < 9 years of completed education, not having a child aged < 6 months, and having no spouse or a spouse supportive of family planning (vs. having a spouse who has unsupportive or uncertain attitudes towards family planning). AUC at 24 weeks was 0.76 (95% CI 0.64–0.87) with 70.0% sensitivity and 78.6% specificity at the optimal cut point in the derivation cohort. Discontinuation was 3.8-fold higher among high- vs. low-risk women (95% CI 2.33–6.30). AUC was 0.68 (95% CI 0.47–0.90) in the validation cohort. A simplified score comprising routinely collected variables demonstrated similar performance (derivation-AUC: 0.73 [95% CI 0.60–0.85]; validation-AUC: 0.73 [95% CI 0.51–0.94]). Positive predictive value in the derivation cohort was 31.4% for the full and 28.1% for the simplified score. CONCLUSIONS: The risk scores demonstrated moderate predictive ability but identified large proportions of women as high risk. Future research is needed to improve sensitivity and specificity of a clinical tool to identify women at high risk for experiencing method-related challenges. IMPLICATIONS: Contraceptive discontinuation is a major driver of unmet contraceptive need globally. Few tools exist for identifying women who may benefit most from additional support in order to meet their contraceptive needs and preferences. This study developed and assessed the validity of a provider-focused risk prediction tool for contraceptive discontinuation among Kenyan women using modern contraception. High rates of early discontinuation observed in this study emphasize the necessity of investing in efforts to develop new contraceptive technologies and stronger delivery systems to better align with women's needs and preferences for voluntary family planning.