Cargando…

Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events

Compound events (CEs) are weather and climate events that result from multiple hazards or drivers with the potential to cause severe socio-economic impacts. Compared with isolated hazards, the multiple hazards/drivers associated with CEs can lead to higher economic losses and death tolls. Here, we p...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Ridder, Nina N., Pitman, Andy J., Westra, Seth, Ukkola, Anna, Hong, X. Do, Bador, Margot, Hirsch, Annette L., Evans, Jason P., Di Luca, Alejandro, Zscheischler, Jakob
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7687898/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33235203
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19639-3
_version_ 1783613613706051584
author Ridder, Nina N.
Pitman, Andy J.
Westra, Seth
Ukkola, Anna
Hong, X. Do
Bador, Margot
Hirsch, Annette L.
Evans, Jason P.
Di Luca, Alejandro
Zscheischler, Jakob
author_facet Ridder, Nina N.
Pitman, Andy J.
Westra, Seth
Ukkola, Anna
Hong, X. Do
Bador, Margot
Hirsch, Annette L.
Evans, Jason P.
Di Luca, Alejandro
Zscheischler, Jakob
author_sort Ridder, Nina N.
collection PubMed
description Compound events (CEs) are weather and climate events that result from multiple hazards or drivers with the potential to cause severe socio-economic impacts. Compared with isolated hazards, the multiple hazards/drivers associated with CEs can lead to higher economic losses and death tolls. Here, we provide the first analysis of multiple multivariate CEs potentially causing high-impact floods, droughts, and fires. Using observations and reanalysis data during 1980–2014, we analyse 27 hazard pairs and provide the first spatial estimates of their occurrences on the global scale. We identify hotspots of multivariate CEs including many socio-economically important regions such as North America, Russia and western Europe. We analyse the relative importance of different multivariate CEs in six continental regions to highlight CEs posing the highest risk. Our results provide initial guidance to assess the regional risk of CE events and an observationally-based dataset to aid evaluation of climate models for simulating multivariate CEs.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7687898
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2020
publisher Nature Publishing Group UK
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-76878982020-12-03 Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events Ridder, Nina N. Pitman, Andy J. Westra, Seth Ukkola, Anna Hong, X. Do Bador, Margot Hirsch, Annette L. Evans, Jason P. Di Luca, Alejandro Zscheischler, Jakob Nat Commun Article Compound events (CEs) are weather and climate events that result from multiple hazards or drivers with the potential to cause severe socio-economic impacts. Compared with isolated hazards, the multiple hazards/drivers associated with CEs can lead to higher economic losses and death tolls. Here, we provide the first analysis of multiple multivariate CEs potentially causing high-impact floods, droughts, and fires. Using observations and reanalysis data during 1980–2014, we analyse 27 hazard pairs and provide the first spatial estimates of their occurrences on the global scale. We identify hotspots of multivariate CEs including many socio-economically important regions such as North America, Russia and western Europe. We analyse the relative importance of different multivariate CEs in six continental regions to highlight CEs posing the highest risk. Our results provide initial guidance to assess the regional risk of CE events and an observationally-based dataset to aid evaluation of climate models for simulating multivariate CEs. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-11-24 /pmc/articles/PMC7687898/ /pubmed/33235203 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19639-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Ridder, Nina N.
Pitman, Andy J.
Westra, Seth
Ukkola, Anna
Hong, X. Do
Bador, Margot
Hirsch, Annette L.
Evans, Jason P.
Di Luca, Alejandro
Zscheischler, Jakob
Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events
title Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events
title_full Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events
title_fullStr Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events
title_full_unstemmed Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events
title_short Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events
title_sort global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7687898/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33235203
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19639-3
work_keys_str_mv AT ridderninan globalhotspotsfortheoccurrenceofcompoundevents
AT pitmanandyj globalhotspotsfortheoccurrenceofcompoundevents
AT westraseth globalhotspotsfortheoccurrenceofcompoundevents
AT ukkolaanna globalhotspotsfortheoccurrenceofcompoundevents
AT hongxdo globalhotspotsfortheoccurrenceofcompoundevents
AT badormargot globalhotspotsfortheoccurrenceofcompoundevents
AT hirschannettel globalhotspotsfortheoccurrenceofcompoundevents
AT evansjasonp globalhotspotsfortheoccurrenceofcompoundevents
AT dilucaalejandro globalhotspotsfortheoccurrenceofcompoundevents
AT zscheischlerjakob globalhotspotsfortheoccurrenceofcompoundevents