Multivariable Models Incorporating Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging Efficiently Predict Results of Prostate Biopsy and Reduce Unnecessary Biopsy

PURPOSE: We sought to develop diagnostic models incorporating mpMRI examination to identify PCa (Gleason score≥3+3) and CSPCa (Gleason score≥3+4) to reduce overdiagnosis and overtreatment. METHODS: We retrospectively identified 784 patients according to inclusion criteria between 2016 and 2020. The cohort was split into a training cohort of 548 (70%) patients and a validation cohort of 236 (30%) patients. Age, PSA derivatives, prostate volume, and mpMRI parameters were assessed as predictors for PCa and CSPCa. The multivariable models based on clinical parameters were evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that age, tPSA, PSAD, prostate volume, MRI-PCa, MRI-seminal vesicle invasion, and MRI-lymph node invasion were significant predictors for both PCa and CSPCa (each p≤0.001). PSAD has the highest diagnostic accuracy in predicting PCa (AUC=0.79) and CSPCa (AUC=0.79). The multivariable models for PCa (AUC=0.92, 95% CI: 0.88–0.96) and CSPCa (AUC=0.95, 95% CI: 0.92–0.97) were significantly higher than the combination of derivatives for PSA (p=0.041 and 0.009 for PCa and CSPCa, respectively) or mpMRI (each p<0.001) in diagnostic accuracy. And the multivariable models for PCa and CSPCa illustrated better calibration and substantial improvement in DCA at threshold above 10%, compared with PSA or mpMRI derivatives. The PCa model with a 30% cutoff or CSPCa model with a 20% cutoff could spare the number of biopsies by 53%, and avoid the number of benign biopsies over 80%, while keeping a 95% sensitivity for detecting CSPCa. CONCLUSION: Our multivariable models could reduce unnecessary biopsy without comprising the ability to diagnose CSPCa. Further prospective validation is required.