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Epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network

Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of the infection channels are still not fully understood. Here w...

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Autores principales: Gross, Bnaya, Havlin, Shlomo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7689394/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33263074
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41109-020-00337-4
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author Gross, Bnaya
Havlin, Shlomo
author_facet Gross, Bnaya
Havlin, Shlomo
author_sort Gross, Bnaya
collection PubMed
description Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of the infection channels are still not fully understood. Here we apply the susceptible-infected-recovered model and study analytically and numerically the epidemic spread on a recently developed spatial modular model imitating the structure of cities in a country. The model assumes that inside a city the infection channels connect many different locations, while the infection channels between cities are less and usually directly connect only a few nearest neighbor cities in a two-dimensional plane. We find that the model experience two epidemic transitions. The first lower threshold represents a local epidemic spread within a city but not to the entire country and the second higher threshold represents a global epidemic in the entire country. Based on our analytical solution we proposed several control strategies and how to optimize them. We also show that while control strategies can successfully control the disease, early actions are essentials to prevent the disease global spread.
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spelling pubmed-76893942020-11-27 Epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network Gross, Bnaya Havlin, Shlomo Appl Netw Sci Research Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of the infection channels are still not fully understood. Here we apply the susceptible-infected-recovered model and study analytically and numerically the epidemic spread on a recently developed spatial modular model imitating the structure of cities in a country. The model assumes that inside a city the infection channels connect many different locations, while the infection channels between cities are less and usually directly connect only a few nearest neighbor cities in a two-dimensional plane. We find that the model experience two epidemic transitions. The first lower threshold represents a local epidemic spread within a city but not to the entire country and the second higher threshold represents a global epidemic in the entire country. Based on our analytical solution we proposed several control strategies and how to optimize them. We also show that while control strategies can successfully control the disease, early actions are essentials to prevent the disease global spread. Springer International Publishing 2020-11-26 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC7689394/ /pubmed/33263074 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41109-020-00337-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Research
Gross, Bnaya
Havlin, Shlomo
Epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network
title Epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network
title_full Epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network
title_fullStr Epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network
title_full_unstemmed Epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network
title_short Epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network
title_sort epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7689394/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33263074
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41109-020-00337-4
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