Nomogram prediction of surgical site infection of HIV-infected patients following orthopedic surgery: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Surgical site infection (SSI) is a devastating complication of orthopedic surgery, related with increased morbidity and mortality. This study was performed with the aim to compare the SSI rate in human immunodeficiency virus HIV-positive patients, to identify other risk factors for SSI and to establish a nomogram model to predict the risk of SSI. METHODS: A total of 101 HIV-positive individuals following orthopedic surgery patients admitted to Beijing Ditan Hospital. Their characteristics were gathered. The univariate and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to explore the risk factors of SSI. And the Nomogram prediction model was constructed and verified. RESULTS: The independent predictive factors of SSI included CD4 (Odds ratio [OR], 0.041; P = 0.040), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (OR, 89.773; P = 0.030), and procalcitonin (PCT) (OR, 220.746; P = 0.006). The scoring nomogram model was as follows: Logit (SSI) = − 2.63589–0.00314*CD4 < 430.75 = 1) + 0.04695*(ESR < 17.46 = 1) + 2.93694*(PCT < 0.22 = 1). The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.946. The cutoff score was − 2.1026 with a sensitivity of 93.33% and a specificity of 84.88%. CONCLUSIONS: CD4, ESR, PCT might affect the occurrence of SSI after orthopedic surgery. The nomogram model constructed in this study is helpful for predicting the probability of SSI.