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Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data

BACKGROUND: In late March 2020, a “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order was issued in Washington State in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. On May 1, a 4-phase reopening plan began. We investigated whether adjunctive prevention strategies would allow less restrictive physical distancing to avoid second e...

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Autores principales: Bracis, Chloe, Burns, Eileen, Moore, Mia, Swan, David, Reeves, Daniel B., Schiffer, Joshua T., Dimitrov, Dobromir
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7695953/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33294745
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.003
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author Bracis, Chloe
Burns, Eileen
Moore, Mia
Swan, David
Reeves, Daniel B.
Schiffer, Joshua T.
Dimitrov, Dobromir
author_facet Bracis, Chloe
Burns, Eileen
Moore, Mia
Swan, David
Reeves, Daniel B.
Schiffer, Joshua T.
Dimitrov, Dobromir
author_sort Bracis, Chloe
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: In late March 2020, a “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order was issued in Washington State in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. On May 1, a 4-phase reopening plan began. We investigated whether adjunctive prevention strategies would allow less restrictive physical distancing to avoid second epidemic waves and secure safe school reopening. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model, stratifying the population by age, infection status and treatment status to project SARS-CoV-2 transmission during and after the reopening period. The model was parameterized with demographic and contact data from King County, WA and calibrated to confirmed cases, deaths and epidemic peak timing. Adjunctive prevention interventions were simulated assuming different levels of pre-COVID physical interactions (pC_PI) restored. RESULTS: The best model fit estimated ~35% pC_PI under the lockdown which prevented ~17,000 deaths by May 15. Gradually restoring 75% pC_PI for all age groups between May 15-July 15 would have resulted in ~350 daily deaths by early September 2020. Maintaining <45% pC_PI was required with current testing practices to ensure low levels of daily infections and deaths. Increased testing, isolation of symptomatic infections, and contact tracing permitted 60% pC_PI without significant increases in daily deaths before November and allowed opening of schools with <15 daily deaths. Inpatient antiviral treatment was predicted to reduce deaths significantly without lowering cases or hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: We predict that widespread testing, contact tracing and case isolation would allow relaxation of physical distancing, as well as opening of schools, without a surge in local cases and deaths.
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spelling pubmed-76959532020-12-07 Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data Bracis, Chloe Burns, Eileen Moore, Mia Swan, David Reeves, Daniel B. Schiffer, Joshua T. Dimitrov, Dobromir Infect Dis Model Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu BACKGROUND: In late March 2020, a “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order was issued in Washington State in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. On May 1, a 4-phase reopening plan began. We investigated whether adjunctive prevention strategies would allow less restrictive physical distancing to avoid second epidemic waves and secure safe school reopening. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model, stratifying the population by age, infection status and treatment status to project SARS-CoV-2 transmission during and after the reopening period. The model was parameterized with demographic and contact data from King County, WA and calibrated to confirmed cases, deaths and epidemic peak timing. Adjunctive prevention interventions were simulated assuming different levels of pre-COVID physical interactions (pC_PI) restored. RESULTS: The best model fit estimated ~35% pC_PI under the lockdown which prevented ~17,000 deaths by May 15. Gradually restoring 75% pC_PI for all age groups between May 15-July 15 would have resulted in ~350 daily deaths by early September 2020. Maintaining <45% pC_PI was required with current testing practices to ensure low levels of daily infections and deaths. Increased testing, isolation of symptomatic infections, and contact tracing permitted 60% pC_PI without significant increases in daily deaths before November and allowed opening of schools with <15 daily deaths. Inpatient antiviral treatment was predicted to reduce deaths significantly without lowering cases or hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: We predict that widespread testing, contact tracing and case isolation would allow relaxation of physical distancing, as well as opening of schools, without a surge in local cases and deaths. KeAi Publishing 2020-11-13 /pmc/articles/PMC7695953/ /pubmed/33294745 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.003 Text en © 2020 The Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
Bracis, Chloe
Burns, Eileen
Moore, Mia
Swan, David
Reeves, Daniel B.
Schiffer, Joshua T.
Dimitrov, Dobromir
Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data
title Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data
title_full Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data
title_fullStr Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data
title_full_unstemmed Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data
title_short Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data
title_sort widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: a modeling analysis of king county, wa data
topic Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7695953/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33294745
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.003
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