Bioclimatic Modelling Identifies Suitable Habitat for the Establishment of the Invasive European Paper Wasp (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) across the Southern Hemisphere

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The European paper wasp, Polistes dominula Christ (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), has become an invasive species across the globe. This wasp can reach high population densities and this, combined with its predatory nature, makes this insect a potential threat to biodiversity. There has been a lot of research conducted on this species throughout the northern hemisphere; however, little is known about their distribution in the southern hemisphere. Our objective was to identify where, in the southern hemisphere, P. dominula could become established. Two species distribution modelling approaches were used to make these predictions. Based on these models, there are large areas across southern South America, South Africa, southern Australia, and much of New Zealand that are likely to be at risk of further invasion by this species. These findings can be used to inform biosecurity measures in regions deemed at risk of invasion by this globally important pest. ABSTRACT: Species distribution models (SDMs) are tools used by ecologists to help predict the spread of invasive species. Information provided by these models can help direct conservation and biosecurity efforts by highlighting areas likely to contain species of interest. In this study, two models were created to investigate the potential range expansion of Polistes dominula Christ (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in the southern hemisphere. This palearctic species has spread to invade North and South America, South Africa, Australia, and more recently New Zealand. Using the BIOCLIM and MAXENT modelling methods, regions that were suitable for P. dominula were identified based on climate data across four regions in the southern hemisphere. In South America areas of central Chile, eastern Argentina, parts of Uruguay, and southern Brazil were identified as climatically suitable for the establishment of P. dominula. Similarly, southern parts of South Africa and Australia were identified by the model to be suitable as well as much of the North Island and east of the South Island of New Zealand. Based on outputs from both models, significant range expansion by P. dominula is possible across its more southern invaded ranges.