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Modelling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic in India

COVID-19 epidemic is declared as the public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organisation in the last week of March 2020. This disease originated from China in December 2019 has already caused havoc around the world, including India. The first case in India was reported...

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Autor principal: Tiwari, Alok
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: China Science Publishing & Media Ltd. Publishing Services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7698830/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2020.11.005
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description COVID-19 epidemic is declared as the public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organisation in the last week of March 2020. This disease originated from China in December 2019 has already caused havoc around the world, including India. The first case in India was reported on 30th January 2020, with the cases crossing 4 million on the day paper was written. This pandemic has caused more than 80,000 fatalities with 3 million recoveries. Strict lockdown of the nation for two months, immediate isolation of infected cases and app-based tracing of infected are some of the proactive steps taken by the authorities. For a better understanding of the evolution of COVID-19 in the world, study on evolution and growth of cases in India could not be avoided. To understand the same, one of the compartment model: Susceptible-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered (SIQR) is used. Recovery rate and doubling rate of the total reported positive cases in the country had crossed 75% and 25 days, respectively. It is also estimated that there is a strong positive correlation between testing rate and detection of new cases up to 6 million tests per day. Using the SIQR modelling effective reproduction number, epidemic doubling rate and infected to quarantined ratio is determined to check the temporal evolution of the pandemic in the country. Effective reproduction number that was at its peak during first half of the April is gradually converging to 1. It is also estimated using this model that with each detected cases in India, there could be 10–50 undetected cases. Like every mathematical model, this model also has some assumptions. To make this model more robust, a technique with weighted parameter that can avoid a person with a strong immune system to be equally vulnerable to the infection, can be worked out. Machine learning algorithms can also be used to train our model with the data of other countries to make the analysis and prediction more precise and accurate.
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spelling pubmed-76988302020-12-01 Modelling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic in India Tiwari, Alok Journal of Safety Science and Resilience Article COVID-19 epidemic is declared as the public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organisation in the last week of March 2020. This disease originated from China in December 2019 has already caused havoc around the world, including India. The first case in India was reported on 30th January 2020, with the cases crossing 4 million on the day paper was written. This pandemic has caused more than 80,000 fatalities with 3 million recoveries. Strict lockdown of the nation for two months, immediate isolation of infected cases and app-based tracing of infected are some of the proactive steps taken by the authorities. For a better understanding of the evolution of COVID-19 in the world, study on evolution and growth of cases in India could not be avoided. To understand the same, one of the compartment model: Susceptible-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered (SIQR) is used. Recovery rate and doubling rate of the total reported positive cases in the country had crossed 75% and 25 days, respectively. It is also estimated that there is a strong positive correlation between testing rate and detection of new cases up to 6 million tests per day. Using the SIQR modelling effective reproduction number, epidemic doubling rate and infected to quarantined ratio is determined to check the temporal evolution of the pandemic in the country. Effective reproduction number that was at its peak during first half of the April is gradually converging to 1. It is also estimated using this model that with each detected cases in India, there could be 10–50 undetected cases. Like every mathematical model, this model also has some assumptions. To make this model more robust, a technique with weighted parameter that can avoid a person with a strong immune system to be equally vulnerable to the infection, can be worked out. Machine learning algorithms can also be used to train our model with the data of other countries to make the analysis and prediction more precise and accurate. China Science Publishing & Media Ltd. Publishing Services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. 2020-12 2020-11-28 /pmc/articles/PMC7698830/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2020.11.005 Text en © 2022 China Science Publishing & Media Ltd. Publishing Services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Tiwari, Alok
Modelling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic in India
title Modelling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic in India
title_full Modelling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic in India
title_fullStr Modelling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic in India
title_full_unstemmed Modelling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic in India
title_short Modelling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic in India
title_sort modelling and analysis of covid-19 epidemic in india
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7698830/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2020.11.005
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