Cumulative oxygen deficit is a novel predictor for the timing of invasive mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 patients with respiratory distress

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The timing of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) is controversial in COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory hypoxemia. The study aimed to develop a novel predictor called cumulative oxygen deficit (COD) for the risk stratification. METHODS: The study was conducted in four designated hospitals for treating COVID-19 patients in Jingmen, Wuhan, from January to March 2020. COD was defined to account for both the magnitude and duration of hypoxemia. A higher value of COD indicated more oxygen deficit. The predictive performance of COD was calculated in multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: A number of 111 patients including 80 in the non-IMV group and 31 in the IMV group were included. Patients with IMV had substantially lower PaO(2) (62 (49, 89) vs. 90.5 (68, 125.25) mmHg; p < 0.001), and higher COD (−6.87 (−29.36, 52.38) vs. −231.68 (−1040.78, 119.83) mmHg·day) than patients without IMV. As compared to patients with COD < 0, patients with COD > 30 mmHg·day had higher risk of fatality (HR: 3.79, 95% CI [2.57–16.93]; p = 0.037), and those with COD > 50 mmHg·day were 10 times more likely to die (HR: 10.45, 95% CI [1.28–85.37]; p = 0.029). CONCLUSIONS: The study developed a novel predictor COD which considered both magnitude and duration of hypoxemia, to assist risk stratification of COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory distress.