Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown

We propose a mechanism explaining the approximately linear growth of Covid19 world total cases as well as the slow linear decrease of the daily new cases (and daily deaths) observed (in average) in USA and Italy. In our explanation, we regard a given population (the whole world or a single nation) a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Bambusi, Dario, Ponno, Antonio
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020
Materias:
Research
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7703512/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33282624
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00095-z
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author Bambusi, Dario
Ponno, Antonio
author_facet Bambusi, Dario
Ponno, Antonio
author_sort Bambusi, Dario
collection PubMed
description We propose a mechanism explaining the approximately linear growth of Covid19 world total cases as well as the slow linear decrease of the daily new cases (and daily deaths) observed (in average) in USA and Italy. In our explanation, we regard a given population (the whole world or a single nation) as composed by many sub-clusters which, after lockdown, evolve essentially independently. The interaction is modeled by the fact that the outbreak time of the epidemic in a sub-cluster is a random variable with probability density slowly varying in time. The explanation is independent of the law according to which the epidemic evolves in the single sub cluster.
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spelling pubmed-77035122020-12-01 Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown Bambusi, Dario Ponno, Antonio J Math Ind Research We propose a mechanism explaining the approximately linear growth of Covid19 world total cases as well as the slow linear decrease of the daily new cases (and daily deaths) observed (in average) in USA and Italy. In our explanation, we regard a given population (the whole world or a single nation) as composed by many sub-clusters which, after lockdown, evolve essentially independently. The interaction is modeled by the fact that the outbreak time of the epidemic in a sub-cluster is a random variable with probability density slowly varying in time. The explanation is independent of the law according to which the epidemic evolves in the single sub cluster. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020-11-30 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC7703512/ /pubmed/33282624 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00095-z Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Research
Bambusi, Dario
Ponno, Antonio
Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
title Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
title_full Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
title_fullStr Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
title_full_unstemmed Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
title_short Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
title_sort linear behavior in covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7703512/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33282624
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00095-z
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