Three-dimensional (3D) magnetic resonance volume assessment and loco-regional failure in anal cancer: early evaluation case-control study

BACKGROUND: The primary aim was to test the hypothesis that deriving pre-treatment 3D magnetic resonance tumour volume (mrTV) quantification improves performance characteristics for the prediction of loco-regional failure compared with standard maximal tumour diameter (1D) assessment in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anus undergoing chemoradiotherapy. METHODS: We performed an early evaluation case-control study at two UK centres (2007–2014) in 39 patients with loco-regional failure (cases), and 41 patients disease-free at 3 years (controls). mrTV was determined using the summation of areas method (Vol(sum)). Reproducibility was assessed using intraclass concordance correlation (ICC) and Bland-Altman limits of agreements. We derived receiver operating curves using logistic regression models and expressed accuracy as area under the curve (ROC(AUC)). RESULTS: The median time per patient for Vol(sum) quantification was 7.00 (inter-quartile range, IQR: 0.57–12.48) minutes. Intra and inter-observer reproducibilities were generally good (ICCs from 0.79 to 0.89) but with wide limits of agreement (intra-observer: − 28 to 31%; inter-observer: − 28 to 46%). Median mrTVs were greater for cases (32.6 IQR: 21.5–53.1 cm(3)) than controls (9.9 IQR: 5.7–18.1 cm(3), p < 0.0001). The ROC(AUC) for mrT-size predicting loco-regional failure was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.63–0.85) improving to 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72–0.92) when replaced with mrTV (test for ROC differences, p = 0.024). CONCLUSION: Preliminary results suggest that the replacement of mrTV for mrT-size improves prediction of loco-regional failure after chemoradiotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the anus. However, mrTV calculation is time consuming and variation in its reproducibility are drawbacks with the current technology. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-020-07613-7.