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Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore: Implications for Other National Containment Efforts
BACKGROUND: We hypothesize that comprehensive surveillance of COVID-19 in Singapore has facilitated early case detection and prompt contact tracing and, with community-based measures, contained spread. We assessed the effectiveness of containment measures by estimating transmissibility (effective re...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7707159/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33044319 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001257 |
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author | Pung, Rachael Cook, Alex R. Chiew, Calvin J. Clapham, Hannah E. Sun, Yinxiaohe Li, Zongbin Dickens, Borame L. Ma, Stefan Mak, Kenneth Tan, Chorh Chuan Heng, Derrick Chen, Mark I-Cheng Lee, Vernon J. |
author_facet | Pung, Rachael Cook, Alex R. Chiew, Calvin J. Clapham, Hannah E. Sun, Yinxiaohe Li, Zongbin Dickens, Borame L. Ma, Stefan Mak, Kenneth Tan, Chorh Chuan Heng, Derrick Chen, Mark I-Cheng Lee, Vernon J. |
author_sort | Pung, Rachael |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: We hypothesize that comprehensive surveillance of COVID-19 in Singapore has facilitated early case detection and prompt contact tracing and, with community-based measures, contained spread. We assessed the effectiveness of containment measures by estimating transmissibility (effective reproduction number, [Image: see text]) over the course of the outbreak. METHODS: We used a Bayesian data augmentation framework to allocate infectors to infectees with no known infectors and determine serial interval distribution parameters via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We fitted a smoothing spline to the number of secondary cases generated by each infector by respective onset dates to estimate [Image: see text] and evaluated increase in mean number of secondary cases per individual for each day’s delay in starting isolation or quarantine. RESULTS: As of April 1, 2020, 1000 COVID-19 cases were reported in Singapore. We estimated a mean serial interval of 4.6 days [95% credible interval (CI) = 4.2, 5.1] with a SD of 3.5 days (95% CI = 3.1, 4.0). The posterior mean [Image: see text] was below one for most of the time, peaking at 1.1 (95% CI = 1.0, 1.3) on week 9 of 2020 due to a spreading event in one of the clusters. Eight hundred twenty-seven (82.7%) of cases infected less than one person on average. Over an interval of 7 days, the incremental mean number of cases generated per individual for each day’s delay in starting isolation or quarantine was 0.03 cases (95% CI = 0.02, 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that robust surveillance, active case detection, prompt contact tracing, and quarantine of close contacts kept [Image: see text] below one. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7707159 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-77071592020-12-08 Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore: Implications for Other National Containment Efforts Pung, Rachael Cook, Alex R. Chiew, Calvin J. Clapham, Hannah E. Sun, Yinxiaohe Li, Zongbin Dickens, Borame L. Ma, Stefan Mak, Kenneth Tan, Chorh Chuan Heng, Derrick Chen, Mark I-Cheng Lee, Vernon J. Epidemiology Infectious Diseases BACKGROUND: We hypothesize that comprehensive surveillance of COVID-19 in Singapore has facilitated early case detection and prompt contact tracing and, with community-based measures, contained spread. We assessed the effectiveness of containment measures by estimating transmissibility (effective reproduction number, [Image: see text]) over the course of the outbreak. METHODS: We used a Bayesian data augmentation framework to allocate infectors to infectees with no known infectors and determine serial interval distribution parameters via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We fitted a smoothing spline to the number of secondary cases generated by each infector by respective onset dates to estimate [Image: see text] and evaluated increase in mean number of secondary cases per individual for each day’s delay in starting isolation or quarantine. RESULTS: As of April 1, 2020, 1000 COVID-19 cases were reported in Singapore. We estimated a mean serial interval of 4.6 days [95% credible interval (CI) = 4.2, 5.1] with a SD of 3.5 days (95% CI = 3.1, 4.0). The posterior mean [Image: see text] was below one for most of the time, peaking at 1.1 (95% CI = 1.0, 1.3) on week 9 of 2020 due to a spreading event in one of the clusters. Eight hundred twenty-seven (82.7%) of cases infected less than one person on average. Over an interval of 7 days, the incremental mean number of cases generated per individual for each day’s delay in starting isolation or quarantine was 0.03 cases (95% CI = 0.02, 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that robust surveillance, active case detection, prompt contact tracing, and quarantine of close contacts kept [Image: see text] below one. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2020-10-07 2021-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7707159/ /pubmed/33044319 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001257 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND) (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) , where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal. |
spellingShingle | Infectious Diseases Pung, Rachael Cook, Alex R. Chiew, Calvin J. Clapham, Hannah E. Sun, Yinxiaohe Li, Zongbin Dickens, Borame L. Ma, Stefan Mak, Kenneth Tan, Chorh Chuan Heng, Derrick Chen, Mark I-Cheng Lee, Vernon J. Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore: Implications for Other National Containment Efforts |
title | Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore: Implications for Other National Containment Efforts |
title_full | Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore: Implications for Other National Containment Efforts |
title_fullStr | Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore: Implications for Other National Containment Efforts |
title_full_unstemmed | Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore: Implications for Other National Containment Efforts |
title_short | Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore: Implications for Other National Containment Efforts |
title_sort | effectiveness of containment measures against covid-19 in singapore: implications for other national containment efforts |
topic | Infectious Diseases |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7707159/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33044319 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001257 |
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