Predicting the need for intubation in the first 24 h after critical care admission using machine learning approaches

Early and accurate prediction of the need for intubation may provide more time for preparation and increase safety margins by avoiding high risk late intubation. This study evaluates whether machine learning can predict the need for intubation within 24 h using commonly available bedside and laboratory parameters taken at critical care admission. We extracted data from 2 large critical care databases (MIMIC-III and eICU-CRD). Missing variables were imputed using autoencoder. Machine learning classifiers using logistic regression and random forest were trained using 60% of the data and tested using the remaining 40% of the data. We compared the performance of logistic regression and random forest models to predict intubation in critically ill patients. After excluding patients with limitations of therapy and missing data, we included 17,616 critically ill patients in this retrospective cohort. Within 24 h of admission, 2,292 patients required intubation, whilst 15,324 patients were not intubated. Blood gas parameters (P(a)O(2), P(a)CO(2), HCO(3)(−)), Glasgow Coma Score, respiratory variables (respiratory rate, S(p)O(2)), temperature, age, and oxygen therapy were used to predict intubation. Random forest had AUC 0.86 (95% CI 0.85–0.87) and logistic regression had AUC 0.77 (95% CI 0.76–0.78) for intubation prediction performance. Random forest model had sensitivity of 0.88 (95% CI 0.86–0.90) and specificity of 0.66 (95% CI 0.63–0.69), with good calibration throughout the range of intubation risks. The results showed that machine learning could predict the need for intubation in critically ill patients using commonly collected bedside clinical parameters and laboratory results. It may be used in real-time to help clinicians predict the need for intubation within 24 h of intensive care unit admission.