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The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change

Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5–$100/tCO(2). W...

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Autores principales: Austin, K. G., Baker, J. S., Sohngen, B. L., Wade, C. M., Daigneault, A., Ohrel, S. B., Ragnauth, S., Bean, A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7708837/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33262324
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19578-z
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author Austin, K. G.
Baker, J. S.
Sohngen, B. L.
Wade, C. M.
Daigneault, A.
Ohrel, S. B.
Ragnauth, S.
Bean, A.
author_facet Austin, K. G.
Baker, J. S.
Sohngen, B. L.
Wade, C. M.
Daigneault, A.
Ohrel, S. B.
Ragnauth, S.
Bean, A.
author_sort Austin, K. G.
collection PubMed
description Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5–$100/tCO(2). We project 0.6–6.0 GtCO(2 )yr(−1) in global mitigation by 2055 at costs of 2–393 billion USD yr(−1), with avoided tropical deforestation comprising 30–54% of total mitigation. Higher prices incentivize larger mitigation proportions via rotation and forest management activities in temperate and boreal biomes. Forest area increases 415–875 Mha relative to the baseline by 2055 at prices $35–$100/tCO(2), with intensive plantations comprising <7% of this increase. Mitigation costs borne by private land managers comprise less than one-quarter of total costs. For forests to contribute ~10% of mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, carbon prices will need to reach $281/tCO(2) in 2055.
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spelling pubmed-77088372020-12-03 The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change Austin, K. G. Baker, J. S. Sohngen, B. L. Wade, C. M. Daigneault, A. Ohrel, S. B. Ragnauth, S. Bean, A. Nat Commun Article Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5–$100/tCO(2). We project 0.6–6.0 GtCO(2 )yr(−1) in global mitigation by 2055 at costs of 2–393 billion USD yr(−1), with avoided tropical deforestation comprising 30–54% of total mitigation. Higher prices incentivize larger mitigation proportions via rotation and forest management activities in temperate and boreal biomes. Forest area increases 415–875 Mha relative to the baseline by 2055 at prices $35–$100/tCO(2), with intensive plantations comprising <7% of this increase. Mitigation costs borne by private land managers comprise less than one-quarter of total costs. For forests to contribute ~10% of mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, carbon prices will need to reach $281/tCO(2) in 2055. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-12-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7708837/ /pubmed/33262324 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19578-z Text en © This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Austin, K. G.
Baker, J. S.
Sohngen, B. L.
Wade, C. M.
Daigneault, A.
Ohrel, S. B.
Ragnauth, S.
Bean, A.
The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change
title The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change
title_full The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change
title_fullStr The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change
title_full_unstemmed The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change
title_short The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change
title_sort economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7708837/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33262324
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19578-z
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