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All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19-related deaths in Iran

Background: Iran reported its first COVID-19 deaths on February 19, 2020 and announced 1284 deaths with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection by March 19, 2020 (end of the winter 1398 SH). We estimated all-cause excess mortality, compared to the historical trends, to obtain an indirect estimat...

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Autores principales: Tadbiri, Hooman, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Naghavi, Mohsen
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Iran University of Medical Sciences 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7711045/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33306040
http://dx.doi.org/10.34171/mjiri.34.80
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author Tadbiri, Hooman
Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
Naghavi, Mohsen
author_facet Tadbiri, Hooman
Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
Naghavi, Mohsen
author_sort Tadbiri, Hooman
collection PubMed
description Background: Iran reported its first COVID-19 deaths on February 19, 2020 and announced 1284 deaths with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection by March 19, 2020 (end of the winter 1398 SH). We estimated all-cause excess mortality, compared to the historical trends, to obtain an indirect estimate of COVID-19-related deaths. Methods: We assembled time series of the seasonal number of all-cause mortalities from March 21, 2013 (spring of 1392 SH) to March 19, 2020 (winter 1398 SH) for each province of Iran and nationwide with the vital statistics data from the National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR). We estimated the expected seasonal mortality and excess mortality (the difference between the number of registered and expected deaths). Moreover, we reviewed the provincial number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 to assess their association with excess deaths. Results: The results of our analysis showed around 7507 (95% CI: 3,350 – 11,664) and 5180 (95% CI: 1,023 – 9,337) all-cause excess mortality in fall and winter, respectively. There were 3778 excess deaths occurred in Qom, Gilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan provinces in the winter, all among the COVID-19 epicenters based on the number of confirmed cases. Conclusion: We think most of the excess deaths in the winter were related to COVID-19. Also, we think the influenza epidemic might have been the main reason for the excess mortality in the fall and parts of excess deaths in the winter of 1398 SH. Moreover, a review of all available clinical and paraclinical records and through analyses of the surveillance data for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) can help to obtain a more accurate estimate of COVID-19 mortality.
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spelling pubmed-77110452020-12-09 All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19-related deaths in Iran Tadbiri, Hooman Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar Naghavi, Mohsen Med J Islam Repub Iran Original Article Background: Iran reported its first COVID-19 deaths on February 19, 2020 and announced 1284 deaths with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection by March 19, 2020 (end of the winter 1398 SH). We estimated all-cause excess mortality, compared to the historical trends, to obtain an indirect estimate of COVID-19-related deaths. Methods: We assembled time series of the seasonal number of all-cause mortalities from March 21, 2013 (spring of 1392 SH) to March 19, 2020 (winter 1398 SH) for each province of Iran and nationwide with the vital statistics data from the National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR). We estimated the expected seasonal mortality and excess mortality (the difference between the number of registered and expected deaths). Moreover, we reviewed the provincial number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 to assess their association with excess deaths. Results: The results of our analysis showed around 7507 (95% CI: 3,350 – 11,664) and 5180 (95% CI: 1,023 – 9,337) all-cause excess mortality in fall and winter, respectively. There were 3778 excess deaths occurred in Qom, Gilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan provinces in the winter, all among the COVID-19 epicenters based on the number of confirmed cases. Conclusion: We think most of the excess deaths in the winter were related to COVID-19. Also, we think the influenza epidemic might have been the main reason for the excess mortality in the fall and parts of excess deaths in the winter of 1398 SH. Moreover, a review of all available clinical and paraclinical records and through analyses of the surveillance data for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) can help to obtain a more accurate estimate of COVID-19 mortality. Iran University of Medical Sciences 2020-07-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7711045/ /pubmed/33306040 http://dx.doi.org/10.34171/mjiri.34.80 Text en © 2020 Iran University of Medical Sciences http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/1.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial-ShareAlike 1.0 License (CC BY-NC-SA 1.0), which allows users to read, copy, distribute and make derivative works for non-commercial purposes from the material, as long as the author of the original work is cited properly.
spellingShingle Original Article
Tadbiri, Hooman
Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
Naghavi, Mohsen
All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19-related deaths in Iran
title All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19-related deaths in Iran
title_full All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19-related deaths in Iran
title_fullStr All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19-related deaths in Iran
title_full_unstemmed All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19-related deaths in Iran
title_short All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19-related deaths in Iran
title_sort all-cause excess mortality and covid-19-related deaths in iran
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7711045/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33306040
http://dx.doi.org/10.34171/mjiri.34.80
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