Development and validation of a postoperative nomogram for predicting overall survival after endoscopic surgical management of olfactory neuroblastoma

BACKGROUND: Olfactory neuroblastoma (ONB) is a rare malignancy arising in the nasal vault. Endoscopic resection has been reported to improve overall survival (OS). At present, clinicopathological predictors of the prognosis of ONB remain undefined. METHODS: Data including demographics, clinical characteristics and follow-up information of ONB patients treated with endoscopic surgery were collected. Risk factors on OS rates were investigated by LASSO and Cox analyses. A nomogram was developed and evaluated with internal validation. Risk groups were established according to patients’ points in the nomogram. FINDINGS: 154 ONB patients treated with surgery were included in this single center study. A nomogram based on multivariate Cox regression model including multiple tumor history, orbital invasion, carotid canal invasion, modified Kadish stage, delivery sequence of RT and surgery, sequence of chemotherapy and surgery was developed. The bias-corrected C-index (0.886 [95% CI: 0.843-0.943]) was significantly higher than of conventional staging classifications. The AUC of nomogram regarding 1-, 2- and 5-year OS probabilities reached 0.912, 0.929 and 0.957, respectively. The risk levels based on nomogram points were more discriminative than conventional classifications. INTERPRETATION: Validation analysis showed good predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. Therefore, the nomogram could be utilized to individually predict survival probability for ONB patients after endoscopic resection. FUNDING: This study was funded by the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (No. 2019-I2M-5-003), the Shanghai Science and Technology Commission (No. 19411950600), the Shanghai Hospital Development Center (No. SHDC12018118) and the Eye, Ear, Nose and Throat Hospital of Fudan University (No. SYB202006).