Shot distribution in the NBA: did we see when 3-point shots became popular?

The National Basketball Association (NBA) is the main basketball league around the globe with estimated revenue of approximately US$ 49.5 billion. A key change in NBA rules was the implementation of the three-point (3PT) line in the 1979–1980 season. Recently a popular conception claims that NBA is passing through a 3PT revolution; however, few works have discussed the evolution of shot patterns in the NBA. Thus, in this article NBA shot data per 100 possessions for each player from all seasons since implementation of the 3PT line were gathered to compare 2PT and 3PT shot statistics, aiming to understand how the shot pattern evolved throughout the NBA history. The results show that the main differences in shot patterns happened due to modifications in the 3PT line distance. The only exception was the statistically significant increase of 3PT attempts (3PTA) in the 1986–1987 season, a likely result of the success of the first 3PT contest in the previous season, which probably led most players to attempt this kind of shot. Also, the results did not show any season-by-season statistically significant change in shot patterns after the 3PT line distance was returned to its original distance in the 1997–1998 season. Thus, the actual popularity and numbers of 3PTA gradually increased throughout the seasons. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s12662-020-00690-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.