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Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China?
BACKGROUND: Existing literatures demonstrated that meteorological factors could be of importance in affecting the spread patterns of the respiratory infectious diseases. However, how ambient temperature may influence the transmissibility of COVID-19 remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: We explore the associ...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier Inc.
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7713592/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33279494 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.110576 |
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author | Wang, Qingan Zhao, Yu Zhang, Yajuan Qiu, Jiangwei Li, Juan Yan, Ni Li, Nan Zhang, Jiaxing Tian, Di Sha, Xiaolan Jing, Jinyun Yang, Chan Wang, Kairong Xu, Rongbin Zhang, Yuhong Yang, Huifang Zhao, Shi Zhao, Yi |
author_facet | Wang, Qingan Zhao, Yu Zhang, Yajuan Qiu, Jiangwei Li, Juan Yan, Ni Li, Nan Zhang, Jiaxing Tian, Di Sha, Xiaolan Jing, Jinyun Yang, Chan Wang, Kairong Xu, Rongbin Zhang, Yuhong Yang, Huifang Zhao, Shi Zhao, Yi |
author_sort | Wang, Qingan |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Existing literatures demonstrated that meteorological factors could be of importance in affecting the spread patterns of the respiratory infectious diseases. However, how ambient temperature may influence the transmissibility of COVID-19 remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: We explore the association between ambient temperature and transmissibility of COVID-19 in different regions across China. METHODS: The surveillance data on COVID-19 and meteorological factors were collected from 28 provincial level regions in China, and estimated the instantaneous reproductive number (R(t)). The generalized additive model was used to assess the relationship between mean temperature and R(t). RESULTS: There were 12,745 COVID-19 cases collected in the study areas. We report the associated effect of temperature on R(t) is likely to be negative but not of statistical significance, which holds for most Chinese regions. CONCLUSIONS: We found little statistical evidence for that the higher temperature may reduce the transmissibility of COVID-19. Since intensive control measures against the COVID-19 epidemics were implemented in China, we acknowledge this may impact the underlying effect size estimation, and thus cautiousness should be taken when interpreting our findings. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7713592 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Elsevier Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-77135922020-12-04 Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China? Wang, Qingan Zhao, Yu Zhang, Yajuan Qiu, Jiangwei Li, Juan Yan, Ni Li, Nan Zhang, Jiaxing Tian, Di Sha, Xiaolan Jing, Jinyun Yang, Chan Wang, Kairong Xu, Rongbin Zhang, Yuhong Yang, Huifang Zhao, Shi Zhao, Yi Environ Res Article BACKGROUND: Existing literatures demonstrated that meteorological factors could be of importance in affecting the spread patterns of the respiratory infectious diseases. However, how ambient temperature may influence the transmissibility of COVID-19 remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: We explore the association between ambient temperature and transmissibility of COVID-19 in different regions across China. METHODS: The surveillance data on COVID-19 and meteorological factors were collected from 28 provincial level regions in China, and estimated the instantaneous reproductive number (R(t)). The generalized additive model was used to assess the relationship between mean temperature and R(t). RESULTS: There were 12,745 COVID-19 cases collected in the study areas. We report the associated effect of temperature on R(t) is likely to be negative but not of statistical significance, which holds for most Chinese regions. CONCLUSIONS: We found little statistical evidence for that the higher temperature may reduce the transmissibility of COVID-19. Since intensive control measures against the COVID-19 epidemics were implemented in China, we acknowledge this may impact the underlying effect size estimation, and thus cautiousness should be taken when interpreting our findings. Elsevier Inc. 2021-02 2020-12-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7713592/ /pubmed/33279494 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.110576 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Wang, Qingan Zhao, Yu Zhang, Yajuan Qiu, Jiangwei Li, Juan Yan, Ni Li, Nan Zhang, Jiaxing Tian, Di Sha, Xiaolan Jing, Jinyun Yang, Chan Wang, Kairong Xu, Rongbin Zhang, Yuhong Yang, Huifang Zhao, Shi Zhao, Yi Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China? |
title | Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China? |
title_full | Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China? |
title_fullStr | Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China? |
title_full_unstemmed | Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China? |
title_short | Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China? |
title_sort | could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of covid-19 in china? |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7713592/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33279494 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.110576 |
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