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Lockdown, relaxation, and acme period in COVID-19: A study of disease dynamics in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico

Lockdown and social distancing measures have been implemented for many countries to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent overwhelming of health services. However, success on this strategy depends not only on the timing of its implementation, but also on the relaxation measures a...

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Autores principales: Tocto-Erazo, Mayra R., Espíndola-Zepeda, Jorge A., Montoya-Laos, José A., Acuña-Zegarra, Manuel A., Olmos-Liceaga, Daniel, Reyes-Castro, Pablo A., Figueroa-Preciado, Gudelia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7714188/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33270705
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242957
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author Tocto-Erazo, Mayra R.
Espíndola-Zepeda, Jorge A.
Montoya-Laos, José A.
Acuña-Zegarra, Manuel A.
Olmos-Liceaga, Daniel
Reyes-Castro, Pablo A.
Figueroa-Preciado, Gudelia
author_facet Tocto-Erazo, Mayra R.
Espíndola-Zepeda, Jorge A.
Montoya-Laos, José A.
Acuña-Zegarra, Manuel A.
Olmos-Liceaga, Daniel
Reyes-Castro, Pablo A.
Figueroa-Preciado, Gudelia
author_sort Tocto-Erazo, Mayra R.
collection PubMed
description Lockdown and social distancing measures have been implemented for many countries to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent overwhelming of health services. However, success on this strategy depends not only on the timing of its implementation, but also on the relaxation measures adopted within each community. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impacts of the lockdown implemented in Hermosillo, Mexico. We compared this intervention with some hypothetical ones, varying the starting date and also the population proportion that is released, breaking the confinement. A Monte Carlo study was performed by considering three scenarios to define our baseline dynamics. Results showed that a hypothetical delay of two weeks, on the lockdown measures, would result in an early acme around May 9 for hospitalization prevalence and an increase on cumulative deaths, 42 times higher by May 31, when compared to baseline. On the other hand, results concerning relaxation dynamics showed that the acme levels depend on the proportion of people who gets back to daily activities as well as the individual behavior with respect to prevention measures. Analysis regarding different relaxing mitigation measures were provided to the Sonoran Health Ministry, as requested. It is important to stress that, according to information provided by health authorities, the acme occurring time was closed to the one given by our model. Hence, we considered that our model resulted useful for the decision-making assessment, and that an extension of it can be used for the study of a potential second wave.
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spelling pubmed-77141882020-12-09 Lockdown, relaxation, and acme period in COVID-19: A study of disease dynamics in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico Tocto-Erazo, Mayra R. Espíndola-Zepeda, Jorge A. Montoya-Laos, José A. Acuña-Zegarra, Manuel A. Olmos-Liceaga, Daniel Reyes-Castro, Pablo A. Figueroa-Preciado, Gudelia PLoS One Research Article Lockdown and social distancing measures have been implemented for many countries to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent overwhelming of health services. However, success on this strategy depends not only on the timing of its implementation, but also on the relaxation measures adopted within each community. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impacts of the lockdown implemented in Hermosillo, Mexico. We compared this intervention with some hypothetical ones, varying the starting date and also the population proportion that is released, breaking the confinement. A Monte Carlo study was performed by considering three scenarios to define our baseline dynamics. Results showed that a hypothetical delay of two weeks, on the lockdown measures, would result in an early acme around May 9 for hospitalization prevalence and an increase on cumulative deaths, 42 times higher by May 31, when compared to baseline. On the other hand, results concerning relaxation dynamics showed that the acme levels depend on the proportion of people who gets back to daily activities as well as the individual behavior with respect to prevention measures. Analysis regarding different relaxing mitigation measures were provided to the Sonoran Health Ministry, as requested. It is important to stress that, according to information provided by health authorities, the acme occurring time was closed to the one given by our model. Hence, we considered that our model resulted useful for the decision-making assessment, and that an extension of it can be used for the study of a potential second wave. Public Library of Science 2020-12-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7714188/ /pubmed/33270705 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242957 Text en © 2020 Tocto-Erazo et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Tocto-Erazo, Mayra R.
Espíndola-Zepeda, Jorge A.
Montoya-Laos, José A.
Acuña-Zegarra, Manuel A.
Olmos-Liceaga, Daniel
Reyes-Castro, Pablo A.
Figueroa-Preciado, Gudelia
Lockdown, relaxation, and acme period in COVID-19: A study of disease dynamics in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico
title Lockdown, relaxation, and acme period in COVID-19: A study of disease dynamics in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico
title_full Lockdown, relaxation, and acme period in COVID-19: A study of disease dynamics in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico
title_fullStr Lockdown, relaxation, and acme period in COVID-19: A study of disease dynamics in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico
title_full_unstemmed Lockdown, relaxation, and acme period in COVID-19: A study of disease dynamics in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico
title_short Lockdown, relaxation, and acme period in COVID-19: A study of disease dynamics in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico
title_sort lockdown, relaxation, and acme period in covid-19: a study of disease dynamics in hermosillo, sonora, mexico
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7714188/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33270705
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242957
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