Serum T3 Level and Duration of Minimum Maintenance Dose Therapy Predict Relapse in Methimazole-Treated Graves Disease

BACKGROUND: Methimazole (MMI) has been advocated as a preferred option for most Graves disease (GD) patients. However, long-term remission after a course of MMI treatment is achieved in only 20% to 40% of patients, depending on the duration of follow-up. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate clinical factors for predicting relapse of GD in Thai patients after MMI treatment. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed of newly diagnosed patients with GD who achieved remission of hyperthyroid GD after at least 12 months of MMI treatment. Long-term outcomes were assessed and predictive factors of early and late relapse were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 443 patients with newly diagnosed GD who were treated with MMI for at least 12 months from 1985 to 2019, and were able to discontinue medication, were studied. The mean age at diagnosis was 37.0 ± 11.4 years and 81.7% were female. Of the 320 patients (72.2%) who achieved initial remission after MMI treatment for 23 months, 106 patients (33.1%) experienced late relapse during the mean follow-up duration of 9.7 years after MMI withdrawal. The remission rates decreased from 36.4% at the first year after stopping MMI to only 20.7% at 10 years. High initial serum triiodothyronine (T3) level and duration of minimum maintenance dose therapy (MMDT) of <6 months were associated with late disease relapse after remission. CONCLUSION: The long-term remission rate of Graves hyperthyroidism was achieved in one-fifth of MMI-treated Thai patients. Predictive markers for late relapse included high initial serum T3 level and a duration of MMDT of <6 months.