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A modified SEIR model applied to the data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia

The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is an established and appropriate approach in many countries to ascertain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. We wished to create a new COVID-19 model to be suitable for patients in any country. In this work, a mod...

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Autores principales: Youssef, Hamdy M., Alghamdi, Najat A., Ezzat, Magdy A., El-Bary, Alaa A., Shawky, Ahmed M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: AIP Publishing LLC 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7722269/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33304643
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0029698
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author Youssef, Hamdy M.
Alghamdi, Najat A.
Ezzat, Magdy A.
El-Bary, Alaa A.
Shawky, Ahmed M.
author_facet Youssef, Hamdy M.
Alghamdi, Najat A.
Ezzat, Magdy A.
El-Bary, Alaa A.
Shawky, Ahmed M.
author_sort Youssef, Hamdy M.
collection PubMed
description The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is an established and appropriate approach in many countries to ascertain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. We wished to create a new COVID-19 model to be suitable for patients in any country. In this work, a modified SEIR model was constructed. We used the real data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia for statistical analyses and complex analyses. The reproduction number and detailed review of stability demonstrated the complexities of our proposed SEIR model. The solution and equilibrium condition were explored based on Jacobian’s linearization approach to the proposed SEIR model. The state of equilibrium was demonstrated, and a stability study was conducted in the disease-free environment. The reproduction number was measured sensitively against its internal parameters. Using the Lyapunov principle of equilibrium, the overall consistency of balance of our model was demonstrated. Findings using the SEIR model and observed outcomes due to COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia were compared. The modified SEIR model could enable successful analyses of the spread of epidemics such as COVID-19. An “ideal protocol” comprised essential steps to help Saudi Arabia decelerate COVID-19 spread. The most important aspects are to stay at home as much as possible and for infected people to remain in an isolated zone or secure area.
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spelling pubmed-77222692020-12-09 A modified SEIR model applied to the data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia Youssef, Hamdy M. Alghamdi, Najat A. Ezzat, Magdy A. El-Bary, Alaa A. Shawky, Ahmed M. AIP Adv Regular Articles The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is an established and appropriate approach in many countries to ascertain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. We wished to create a new COVID-19 model to be suitable for patients in any country. In this work, a modified SEIR model was constructed. We used the real data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia for statistical analyses and complex analyses. The reproduction number and detailed review of stability demonstrated the complexities of our proposed SEIR model. The solution and equilibrium condition were explored based on Jacobian’s linearization approach to the proposed SEIR model. The state of equilibrium was demonstrated, and a stability study was conducted in the disease-free environment. The reproduction number was measured sensitively against its internal parameters. Using the Lyapunov principle of equilibrium, the overall consistency of balance of our model was demonstrated. Findings using the SEIR model and observed outcomes due to COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia were compared. The modified SEIR model could enable successful analyses of the spread of epidemics such as COVID-19. An “ideal protocol” comprised essential steps to help Saudi Arabia decelerate COVID-19 spread. The most important aspects are to stay at home as much as possible and for infected people to remain in an isolated zone or secure area. AIP Publishing LLC 2020-12-04 /pmc/articles/PMC7722269/ /pubmed/33304643 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0029698 Text en © 2020 Author(s). 2158-3226/2020/10(12)/125210/9/$0.00 All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Regular Articles
Youssef, Hamdy M.
Alghamdi, Najat A.
Ezzat, Magdy A.
El-Bary, Alaa A.
Shawky, Ahmed M.
A modified SEIR model applied to the data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia
title A modified SEIR model applied to the data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia
title_full A modified SEIR model applied to the data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia
title_fullStr A modified SEIR model applied to the data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia
title_full_unstemmed A modified SEIR model applied to the data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia
title_short A modified SEIR model applied to the data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia
title_sort modified seir model applied to the data of covid-19 spread in saudi arabia
topic Regular Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7722269/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33304643
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0029698
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