Systematic evaluation of supervised machine learning for sample origin prediction using metagenomic sequencing data

BACKGROUND: The advent of metagenomic sequencing provides microbial abundance patterns that can be leveraged for sample origin prediction. Supervised machine learning classification approaches have been reported to predict sample origin accurately when the origin has been previously sampled. Using metagenomic datasets provided by the 2019 CAMDA challenge, we evaluated the influence of variable technical, analytical and machine learning approaches for result interpretation and novel source prediction. RESULTS: Comparison between 16S rRNA amplicon and shotgun sequencing approaches as well as metagenomic analytical tools showed differences in normalized microbial abundance, especially for organisms present at low abundance. Shotgun sequence data analyzed using Kraken2 and Bracken, for taxonomic annotation, had higher detection sensitivity. As classification models are limited to labeling pre-trained origins, we took an alternative approach using Lasso-regularized multivariate regression to predict geographic coordinates for comparison. In both models, the prediction errors were much higher in Leave-1-city-out than in 10-fold cross validation, of which the former realistically forecasted the increased difficulty in accurately predicting samples from new origins. This challenge was further confirmed when applying the model to a set of samples obtained from new origins. Overall, the prediction performance of the regression and classification models, as measured by mean squared error, were comparable on mystery samples. Due to higher prediction error rates for samples from new origins, we provided an additional strategy based on prediction ambiguity to infer whether a sample is from a new origin. Lastly, we report increased prediction error when data from different sequencing protocols were included as training data. CONCLUSIONS: Herein, we highlight the capacity of predicting sample origin accurately with pre-trained origins and the challenge of predicting new origins through both regression and classification models. Overall, this work provides a summary of the impact of sequencing technique, protocol, taxonomic analytical approaches, and machine learning approaches on the use of metagenomics for prediction of sample origin. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13062-020-00287-y.