Development and validation of a novel prognostic model for long-term overall survival in liposarcoma patients: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE: To construct and validate a clinically accurate and histology-specific nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) among liposarcoma (LPS) patients. METHODS: We retrospectively screened eligible patients with LPS diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. We screened independent predictors for the nomogram using univariate and multivariate analyses. We then evaluated the prognostic accuracy of the nomogram by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and Harrell’s concordance index. The prognostic performances of the nomogram and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) seventh edition staging system were compared using integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and decision curve analyses (DCA). RESULTS: A novel nomogram was developed using independent prognostic variables, which exhibited excellent predictive performances for 3- and 5-year OS according to ROC curves. The C-index proved that the proposed nomogram had better prognostic accuracy for LPS than the traditional AJCC system, while the NRI, IDI, and DCA of the nomogram indicated better clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed nomogram can predict 3- and 5-year OS of LPS patients with reliable accuracy and may thus help clinicians to develop appropriate clinical therapies and counseling strategies to prolong the life expectancy of these patients.