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Population change and the burden of hospitalization in Germany 2000–2040: Decomposition analysis and projection

Demographic factors, such as population aging and shrinkage, and non-demographic factors, such as hospitalization rate and length of hospital stay, generate challenges for inpatient care. This paper used decomposition analysis to assess how changes in these factors affected the number of hospital tr...

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Autores principales: Nowossadeck, Enno, Prütz, Franziska, Teti, Andrea
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7732063/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33306705
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243322
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author Nowossadeck, Enno
Prütz, Franziska
Teti, Andrea
author_facet Nowossadeck, Enno
Prütz, Franziska
Teti, Andrea
author_sort Nowossadeck, Enno
collection PubMed
description Demographic factors, such as population aging and shrinkage, and non-demographic factors, such as hospitalization rate and length of hospital stay, generate challenges for inpatient care. This paper used decomposition analysis to assess how changes in these factors affected the number of hospital treatment days from 2000 to 2015 in Germany. Demographic aging was linked to increases in the number of treatment days for women (+10.0%) and men (+19.2%) and in hospitalization rates for women +6.0% and men +5.4%. However, these increases were offset by decreases in the number of hospital days (women: 16.5%; men: 7.3%) and length of stay (women: -27.4%; men -26.3%). For the projection up to 2040, 12 scenarios were developed (six for women and six for men) using three variants for future population demographics and two variants for future length of stay and hospitalization rates. One of the two variants for future length of stay and hospitalization rates provides for a constant value for the year 2015. For the second of these two variants variant, a logarithmic model was estimated on the basis of values from 2000 to 2015. and the trends were extrapolated using this model until 2040. The strongest overall predicted increase was 18.4% between 2015 and 2040, including a 22.4% increase for men. In two scenarios for women, only slight declines were predicted. All results, both for the decomposition analysis and projection, indicated a moderate but sustained effect of demographic aging on the number of hospital treatment days, leading to a significant increase in hospital treatment days over the study period. Non-demographic factors also had strong influences, especially in shorter time periods, but these effects offset each other over time. The change in the population size in the period under study had very little effect on the number of hospital treatment days.
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spelling pubmed-77320632020-12-17 Population change and the burden of hospitalization in Germany 2000–2040: Decomposition analysis and projection Nowossadeck, Enno Prütz, Franziska Teti, Andrea PLoS One Research Article Demographic factors, such as population aging and shrinkage, and non-demographic factors, such as hospitalization rate and length of hospital stay, generate challenges for inpatient care. This paper used decomposition analysis to assess how changes in these factors affected the number of hospital treatment days from 2000 to 2015 in Germany. Demographic aging was linked to increases in the number of treatment days for women (+10.0%) and men (+19.2%) and in hospitalization rates for women +6.0% and men +5.4%. However, these increases were offset by decreases in the number of hospital days (women: 16.5%; men: 7.3%) and length of stay (women: -27.4%; men -26.3%). For the projection up to 2040, 12 scenarios were developed (six for women and six for men) using three variants for future population demographics and two variants for future length of stay and hospitalization rates. One of the two variants for future length of stay and hospitalization rates provides for a constant value for the year 2015. For the second of these two variants variant, a logarithmic model was estimated on the basis of values from 2000 to 2015. and the trends were extrapolated using this model until 2040. The strongest overall predicted increase was 18.4% between 2015 and 2040, including a 22.4% increase for men. In two scenarios for women, only slight declines were predicted. All results, both for the decomposition analysis and projection, indicated a moderate but sustained effect of demographic aging on the number of hospital treatment days, leading to a significant increase in hospital treatment days over the study period. Non-demographic factors also had strong influences, especially in shorter time periods, but these effects offset each other over time. The change in the population size in the period under study had very little effect on the number of hospital treatment days. Public Library of Science 2020-12-11 /pmc/articles/PMC7732063/ /pubmed/33306705 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243322 Text en © 2020 Nowossadeck et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Nowossadeck, Enno
Prütz, Franziska
Teti, Andrea
Population change and the burden of hospitalization in Germany 2000–2040: Decomposition analysis and projection
title Population change and the burden of hospitalization in Germany 2000–2040: Decomposition analysis and projection
title_full Population change and the burden of hospitalization in Germany 2000–2040: Decomposition analysis and projection
title_fullStr Population change and the burden of hospitalization in Germany 2000–2040: Decomposition analysis and projection
title_full_unstemmed Population change and the burden of hospitalization in Germany 2000–2040: Decomposition analysis and projection
title_short Population change and the burden of hospitalization in Germany 2000–2040: Decomposition analysis and projection
title_sort population change and the burden of hospitalization in germany 2000–2040: decomposition analysis and projection
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7732063/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33306705
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243322
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