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Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R(0)) is a term that describes the expected number of infections generated by 1 case in a susceptible population. At the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, R(0) was frequently referenced by the public health community and th...

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Autores principales: Lim, Jun-Sik, Cho, Sung-Il, Ryu, Sukhyun, Pak, Son-Il
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Korean Society for Preventive Medicine 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7733754/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33296580
http://dx.doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.288
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author Lim, Jun-Sik
Cho, Sung-Il
Ryu, Sukhyun
Pak, Son-Il
author_facet Lim, Jun-Sik
Cho, Sung-Il
Ryu, Sukhyun
Pak, Son-Il
author_sort Lim, Jun-Sik
collection PubMed
description In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R(0)) is a term that describes the expected number of infections generated by 1 case in a susceptible population. At the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, R(0) was frequently referenced by the public health community and the wider public. However, this metric is often misused or misinterpreted. Moreover, the complexity of the process of estimating R(0) has caused difficulties for a substantial number of researchers. In this article, in order to increase the accessibility of this concept, we address several misconceptions related to the threshold characteristics of R(0) and the effective reproduction number (R(t)). Moreover, the appropriate interpretation of the metrics is discussed. R(0) should be considered as a population-averaged value that pools the contact structure according to a stochastic transmission process. Furthermore, it is necessary to understand the unavoidable time lag for R(t) due to the incubation period of the disease.
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spelling pubmed-77337542020-12-18 Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number Lim, Jun-Sik Cho, Sung-Il Ryu, Sukhyun Pak, Son-Il J Prev Med Public Health COVID-19: Perspective In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R(0)) is a term that describes the expected number of infections generated by 1 case in a susceptible population. At the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, R(0) was frequently referenced by the public health community and the wider public. However, this metric is often misused or misinterpreted. Moreover, the complexity of the process of estimating R(0) has caused difficulties for a substantial number of researchers. In this article, in order to increase the accessibility of this concept, we address several misconceptions related to the threshold characteristics of R(0) and the effective reproduction number (R(t)). Moreover, the appropriate interpretation of the metrics is discussed. R(0) should be considered as a population-averaged value that pools the contact structure according to a stochastic transmission process. Furthermore, it is necessary to understand the unavoidable time lag for R(t) due to the incubation period of the disease. Korean Society for Preventive Medicine 2020-11 2020-10-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7733754/ /pubmed/33296580 http://dx.doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.288 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle COVID-19: Perspective
Lim, Jun-Sik
Cho, Sung-Il
Ryu, Sukhyun
Pak, Son-Il
Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number
title Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number
title_full Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number
title_fullStr Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number
title_full_unstemmed Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number
title_short Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number
title_sort interpretation of the basic and effective reproduction number
topic COVID-19: Perspective
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7733754/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33296580
http://dx.doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.288
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