Natural gas shortages during the “coal-to-gas” transition in China have caused a large redistribution of air pollution in winter 2017

The Chinese “coal-to-gas” and “coal-to-electricity” strategies aim at reducing dispersed coal consumption and related air pollution by promoting the use of clean and low-carbon fuels in northern China. Here, we show that on top of meteorological influences, the effective emission mitigation measures achieved an average decrease of fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) concentrations of ∼14% in Beijing and surrounding areas (the “2+26” pilot cities) in winter 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, where the dispersed coal control measures contributed ∼60% of the total PM(2.5) reductions. However, the localized air quality improvement was accompanied by a contemporaneous ∼15% upsurge of PM(2.5) concentrations over large areas in southern China. We find that the pollution transfer that resulted from a shift in emissions was of a high likelihood caused by a natural gas shortage in the south due to the coal-to-gas transition in the north. The overall shortage of natural gas greatly jeopardized the air quality benefits of the coal-to-gas strategy in winter 2017 and reflects structural challenges and potential threats in China’s clean-energy transition.