A prognostic nomogram incorporating red cell distribution width for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is the second most common subtype of stroke with higher mortality and morbidity, and it lacks effective prognostic markers. The aim of this research is to construct newly valuable prognostic nomogram incorporating red blood cell distribution width (RDW) for ICH patients. We retrospectively analyzed 953 adult patients with ICH. The impacts of RDW on short-term mortality and functional prognosis were calculated using Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criteria (BIC) and the area under the curve (AUC) respectively, which could be used to compare with Glasgow coma scale (GCS) and ICH score. The independent factors of prognosis were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram based on RDW for nerve functional prognosis was further constructed and validated. Its clinical value was subsequently explored utilizing decision curve analysis. Cumulative clinical results were retrieved for 235 inpatients from Jan 2012 to June 2017. In 30-day mortality sets, GCS and ICH score had better prognostic performance than RDW (AUC: 0.929 and 0.917 vs 0.764; AIC: 124.101 and 134.188 vs 221.372; BIC: 131.021 and 141.107 vs 228.291). In 30-day functional prognosis sets, the consequences of evaluation systems were inconsistent. GCS was the best parameter for predicting outcome using AIC (262.350 vs 276.392 and 264.756) and BIC (269.269 vs 283.311 and 271.675). However, RDW was higher than GCS and ICH score considering AUC (0.784 vs 0.759 and 0.722). Age, GCS, RDW, platelet distribution width, and surgery were independent prognostic factors by multivariate logistic regression analysis, and those coefficients were used to formulate a nomogram. This nomogram can provide accurate prediction with the concordance index of 0.880 (95% CI, 0.837–0.922) higher than Harrell's concordance index of GCS system 0.759 (95% CI, 0.698–0.819) and RDW 0.784 (95% CI, 0.721–0.847). The calibration plots showed optimal consistency between bootstrap-predicted and the actual observed values of 30-day unfavorable prognosis. Decision curve analysis showed an increased net benefit for utilizing the nomogram. High RDW values are associated with an unfavorable outcome after ICH. The established nomogram incorporating RDW should be considered for a 30-day functional prognosis.