Association of Preoperative Serum Carcinoembryonic Antigen and Gastric Cancer Recurrence: A Large Cohort Study

Background and Aim: Measuring postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is recommended by guidelines to help detecting recurrence of gastric cancer patients. However, the prognostic significance of elevated preoperative CEA is unclear. This study aims to investigate whether patients with elevated preoperative CEA have a higher risk of recurrence than patients with normal preoperative CEA. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study at a gastric cancer center in South China. Consecutive patients with stage I to III gastric adenocarcinoma who underwent curative resection at the center from January 2001 to February 2016 were identified. Patients were grouped into two cohorts: normal preoperative CEA (≤ 5 ng/ml), and elevated preoperative CEA (> 5 ng/ml). 3-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) and hazard function curves over time were estimated. Results: A total of 1,596 patients (1,063 {66.6%} male; median {Interquartile range, IQR} age, 59 {50-66} years) were identified. Patients with elevated preoperative CEA had 15.5% lower 3-year RFS (n=222 {70.4%}) than the cohorts with normal preoperative CEA (n=1,374 {85.9%}). The hazard function of recurrence for the two cohorts peaked at the similar time (around 10 months after surgery). Multivariate Cox analyses confirmed that elevated preoperative CEA was independently associated with shorter RFS (Hazard Ratio {HR}, 1.69; 95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.26-2.27; P = 0.001). Conclusions: Patients with elevated preoperative CEA are at increased risk for recurrence, especially within the first 24 months after surgery.