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Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement
Superspreading is a ubiquitous feature of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, with a few primary infectors leading to a large proportion of secondary infections. Despite the superspreading events observed in previous coronavirus outbreaks, the mechanisms behind the phenomenon are still poorly understo...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7743081/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33330874 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.08.20246082 |
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author | Susswein, Zachary Bansal, Shweta |
author_facet | Susswein, Zachary Bansal, Shweta |
author_sort | Susswein, Zachary |
collection | PubMed |
description | Superspreading is a ubiquitous feature of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, with a few primary infectors leading to a large proportion of secondary infections. Despite the superspreading events observed in previous coronavirus outbreaks, the mechanisms behind the phenomenon are still poorly understood. Here, we show that superspreading is largely driven by heterogeneity in contact behavior rather than heterogeneity in susceptibility or infectivity caused by biological factors. We find that highly heterogeneous contact behavior is required to produce the extreme superspreading estimated from recent COVID-19 outbreaks. However, we show that superspreading estimates are noisy and subject to biases in data collection and public health capacity, potentially leading to an overestimation of superspreading. These results suggest that superspreading for COVID-19 is substantial, but less than previously estimated. Our findings highlight the complexity inherent to quantitative measurement of epidemic dynamics and the necessity of robust theory to guide public health intervention. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7743081 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-77430812020-12-17 Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement Susswein, Zachary Bansal, Shweta medRxiv Article Superspreading is a ubiquitous feature of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, with a few primary infectors leading to a large proportion of secondary infections. Despite the superspreading events observed in previous coronavirus outbreaks, the mechanisms behind the phenomenon are still poorly understood. Here, we show that superspreading is largely driven by heterogeneity in contact behavior rather than heterogeneity in susceptibility or infectivity caused by biological factors. We find that highly heterogeneous contact behavior is required to produce the extreme superspreading estimated from recent COVID-19 outbreaks. However, we show that superspreading estimates are noisy and subject to biases in data collection and public health capacity, potentially leading to an overestimation of superspreading. These results suggest that superspreading for COVID-19 is substantial, but less than previously estimated. Our findings highlight the complexity inherent to quantitative measurement of epidemic dynamics and the necessity of robust theory to guide public health intervention. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2020-12-11 /pmc/articles/PMC7743081/ /pubmed/33330874 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.08.20246082 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format for noncommercial purposes only, and only so long as attribution is given to the creator. |
spellingShingle | Article Susswein, Zachary Bansal, Shweta Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement |
title | Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement |
title_full | Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement |
title_fullStr | Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement |
title_full_unstemmed | Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement |
title_short | Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement |
title_sort | characterizing superspreading of sars-cov-2 : from mechanism to measurement |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7743081/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33330874 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.08.20246082 |
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