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Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement

Superspreading is a ubiquitous feature of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, with a few primary infectors leading to a large proportion of secondary infections. Despite the superspreading events observed in previous coronavirus outbreaks, the mechanisms behind the phenomenon are still poorly understo...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Susswein, Zachary, Bansal, Shweta
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7743081/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33330874
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.08.20246082
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author Susswein, Zachary
Bansal, Shweta
author_facet Susswein, Zachary
Bansal, Shweta
author_sort Susswein, Zachary
collection PubMed
description Superspreading is a ubiquitous feature of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, with a few primary infectors leading to a large proportion of secondary infections. Despite the superspreading events observed in previous coronavirus outbreaks, the mechanisms behind the phenomenon are still poorly understood. Here, we show that superspreading is largely driven by heterogeneity in contact behavior rather than heterogeneity in susceptibility or infectivity caused by biological factors. We find that highly heterogeneous contact behavior is required to produce the extreme superspreading estimated from recent COVID-19 outbreaks. However, we show that superspreading estimates are noisy and subject to biases in data collection and public health capacity, potentially leading to an overestimation of superspreading. These results suggest that superspreading for COVID-19 is substantial, but less than previously estimated. Our findings highlight the complexity inherent to quantitative measurement of epidemic dynamics and the necessity of robust theory to guide public health intervention.
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spelling pubmed-77430812020-12-17 Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement Susswein, Zachary Bansal, Shweta medRxiv Article Superspreading is a ubiquitous feature of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, with a few primary infectors leading to a large proportion of secondary infections. Despite the superspreading events observed in previous coronavirus outbreaks, the mechanisms behind the phenomenon are still poorly understood. Here, we show that superspreading is largely driven by heterogeneity in contact behavior rather than heterogeneity in susceptibility or infectivity caused by biological factors. We find that highly heterogeneous contact behavior is required to produce the extreme superspreading estimated from recent COVID-19 outbreaks. However, we show that superspreading estimates are noisy and subject to biases in data collection and public health capacity, potentially leading to an overestimation of superspreading. These results suggest that superspreading for COVID-19 is substantial, but less than previously estimated. Our findings highlight the complexity inherent to quantitative measurement of epidemic dynamics and the necessity of robust theory to guide public health intervention. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2020-12-11 /pmc/articles/PMC7743081/ /pubmed/33330874 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.08.20246082 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format for noncommercial purposes only, and only so long as attribution is given to the creator.
spellingShingle Article
Susswein, Zachary
Bansal, Shweta
Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement
title Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement
title_full Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement
title_fullStr Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement
title_full_unstemmed Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement
title_short Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement
title_sort characterizing superspreading of sars-cov-2 : from mechanism to measurement
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7743081/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33330874
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.08.20246082
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