Estimating the herd immunity threshold by accounting for the hidden asymptomatics using a COVID-19 specific model

A quantitative COVID-19 model that incorporates hidden asymptomatic patients is developed, and an analytic solution in parametric form is given. The model incorporates the impact of lock-down and resulting spatial migration of population due to announcement of lock-down. A method is presented for es...

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Autores principales: Kaushal, Shaurya, Rajput, Abhineet Singh, Bhattacharya, Soumyadeep, Vidyasagar, M., Kumar, Aloke, Prakash, Meher K., Ansumali, Santosh
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7744057/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33326421
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242132
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author Kaushal, Shaurya
Rajput, Abhineet Singh
Bhattacharya, Soumyadeep
Vidyasagar, M.
Kumar, Aloke
Prakash, Meher K.
Ansumali, Santosh
author_facet Kaushal, Shaurya
Rajput, Abhineet Singh
Bhattacharya, Soumyadeep
Vidyasagar, M.
Kumar, Aloke
Prakash, Meher K.
Ansumali, Santosh
author_sort Kaushal, Shaurya
collection PubMed
description A quantitative COVID-19 model that incorporates hidden asymptomatic patients is developed, and an analytic solution in parametric form is given. The model incorporates the impact of lock-down and resulting spatial migration of population due to announcement of lock-down. A method is presented for estimating the model parameters from real-world data, and it is shown that the various phases in the observed epidemiological data are captured well. It is shown that increase of infections slows down and herd immunity is achieved when active symptomatic patients are 10-25% of the population for the four countries we studied. Finally, a method for estimating the number of asymptomatic patients, who have been the key hidden link in the spread of the infections, is presented.
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spelling pubmed-77440572020-12-31 Estimating the herd immunity threshold by accounting for the hidden asymptomatics using a COVID-19 specific model Kaushal, Shaurya Rajput, Abhineet Singh Bhattacharya, Soumyadeep Vidyasagar, M. Kumar, Aloke Prakash, Meher K. Ansumali, Santosh PLoS One Research Article A quantitative COVID-19 model that incorporates hidden asymptomatic patients is developed, and an analytic solution in parametric form is given. The model incorporates the impact of lock-down and resulting spatial migration of population due to announcement of lock-down. A method is presented for estimating the model parameters from real-world data, and it is shown that the various phases in the observed epidemiological data are captured well. It is shown that increase of infections slows down and herd immunity is achieved when active symptomatic patients are 10-25% of the population for the four countries we studied. Finally, a method for estimating the number of asymptomatic patients, who have been the key hidden link in the spread of the infections, is presented. Public Library of Science 2020-12-16 /pmc/articles/PMC7744057/ /pubmed/33326421 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242132 Text en © 2020 Kaushal et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Kaushal, Shaurya
Rajput, Abhineet Singh
Bhattacharya, Soumyadeep
Vidyasagar, M.
Kumar, Aloke
Prakash, Meher K.
Ansumali, Santosh
Estimating the herd immunity threshold by accounting for the hidden asymptomatics using a COVID-19 specific model
title Estimating the herd immunity threshold by accounting for the hidden asymptomatics using a COVID-19 specific model
title_full Estimating the herd immunity threshold by accounting for the hidden asymptomatics using a COVID-19 specific model
title_fullStr Estimating the herd immunity threshold by accounting for the hidden asymptomatics using a COVID-19 specific model
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the herd immunity threshold by accounting for the hidden asymptomatics using a COVID-19 specific model
title_short Estimating the herd immunity threshold by accounting for the hidden asymptomatics using a COVID-19 specific model
title_sort estimating the herd immunity threshold by accounting for the hidden asymptomatics using a covid-19 specific model
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7744057/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33326421
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242132
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