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Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storms that form over warm tropical oceans. Along their tracks, TCs mix up cold water, which can further affect their intensity. Because of the adoption of lower-resolution ocean models, previous modeling studies on the TC response to greenhouse warming underestim...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
American Association for the Advancement of Science
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7744072/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33328238 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd5109 |
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author | Chu, Jung-Eun Lee, Sun-Seon Timmermann, Axel Wengel, Christian Stuecker, Malte F. Yamaguchi, Ryohei |
author_facet | Chu, Jung-Eun Lee, Sun-Seon Timmermann, Axel Wengel, Christian Stuecker, Malte F. Yamaguchi, Ryohei |
author_sort | Chu, Jung-Eun |
collection | PubMed |
description | Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storms that form over warm tropical oceans. Along their tracks, TCs mix up cold water, which can further affect their intensity. Because of the adoption of lower-resolution ocean models, previous modeling studies on the TC response to greenhouse warming underestimated such oceanic feedbacks. To address the robustness of TC projections in the presence of mesoscale air-sea interactions and complex coastal topography, we conduct greenhouse warming experiments using an ultrahigh-resolution Earth System Model. We find that a projected weakening of the rising branches of the summer Hadley cells suppresses future TC genesis and TC-generated ocean cooling. The forced response is similar to recent observational trends, indicating a possible emergence of the anthropogenic signal beyond natural variability levels. In the greenhouse warming simulations, landfalling TCs intensify, both in terms of wind speed and associated rainfall. Our modeling results provide relevant information for climate change adaptation efforts. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7744072 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | American Association for the Advancement of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-77440722021-01-04 Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming Chu, Jung-Eun Lee, Sun-Seon Timmermann, Axel Wengel, Christian Stuecker, Malte F. Yamaguchi, Ryohei Sci Adv Research Articles Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storms that form over warm tropical oceans. Along their tracks, TCs mix up cold water, which can further affect their intensity. Because of the adoption of lower-resolution ocean models, previous modeling studies on the TC response to greenhouse warming underestimated such oceanic feedbacks. To address the robustness of TC projections in the presence of mesoscale air-sea interactions and complex coastal topography, we conduct greenhouse warming experiments using an ultrahigh-resolution Earth System Model. We find that a projected weakening of the rising branches of the summer Hadley cells suppresses future TC genesis and TC-generated ocean cooling. The forced response is similar to recent observational trends, indicating a possible emergence of the anthropogenic signal beyond natural variability levels. In the greenhouse warming simulations, landfalling TCs intensify, both in terms of wind speed and associated rainfall. Our modeling results provide relevant information for climate change adaptation efforts. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2020-12-16 /pmc/articles/PMC7744072/ /pubmed/33328238 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd5109 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Articles Chu, Jung-Eun Lee, Sun-Seon Timmermann, Axel Wengel, Christian Stuecker, Malte F. Yamaguchi, Ryohei Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming |
title | Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming |
title_full | Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming |
title_fullStr | Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming |
title_full_unstemmed | Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming |
title_short | Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming |
title_sort | reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming |
topic | Research Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7744072/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33328238 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd5109 |
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