A Clinical Model for the Prediction of Acute Exacerbation Risk in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a risk assessment model for the prediction of the acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AE-IPF) in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). METHODS: We enrolled a total of 110 patients with IPF, hospitalized or treated as outpatients at Xuzhou Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine from July 2012 to July 2020. Of these, 78 and 32 patients were randomly assigned to training and test groups, respectively. The risk factors for AE-IPF were analyzed using logistic regression analysis, and a nomographic model was constructed. The accuracy, degree of calibration, and clinical usefulness of the model were assessed with the consistency index (C-index), calibration diagram, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, the stability of the model was tested using internal validation. RESULTS: The results of logistic regression analysis showed that a history of occupational exposure, diabetes mellitus (DM), essential hypertension (EH), and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO)% predicted were independent risk factors for AE-IPF prediction. The nomographic model was constructed based on these independent risk factors, and the C-index was 0.80. The C-index for the internal validation was 0.75, suggesting that the model had good accuracy. The decision curve indicated that for a threshold value of 0.04–0.66, greater clinical benefit was obtained with the AE-IPF risk prediction model. CONCLUSION: A customized AE-IPF prediction model based on a history of occupational exposure, DM, EH, and DLCO% predicted provided a reference for the clinical prediction of AE-IPF.