Predicting outcomes of cross-sex hormone therapy in transgender individuals with gender incongruence based on pre-therapy resting-state brain connectivity

Individuals with gender incongruence (GI) experience serious distress due to incongruence between their gender identity and birth-assigned sex. Sociological, cultural, interpersonal, and biological factors are likely contributory, and for some individuals medical treatment such as cross-sex hormone therapy and gender-affirming surgery can be helpful. Cross-sex hormone therapy can be effective for reducing body incongruence, but responses vary, and there is no reliable way to predict therapeutic outcomes. We used clinical and MRI data before cross-sex hormone therapy as features to train a machine learning model to predict individuals’ post-therapy body congruence (the degree to which photos of their bodies match their self-identities). Twenty-five trans women and trans men with gender incongruence participated. The model significantly predicted post-therapy body congruence, with the highest predictive features coming from the cingulo-opercular (R(2) = 0.41) and fronto-parietal (R(2) = 0.30) networks. This study provides evidence that hormone therapy efficacy can be predicted from information collected before therapy, and that patterns of functional brain connectivity may provide insights into body-brain effects of hormones, affecting one's sense of body congruence. Results could help identify the need for personalized therapies in individuals predicted to have low body-self congruence after standard therapy.