A test of oscillation in the human secondary sex ratio

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The sex ratio of human birth cohorts predicts the health and longevity of their members. Most literature invokes natural selection in support of the argument that heritable tendencies to produce male or female offspring induce oscillation in the sex ratio and its sequelae. Tests of the argument remain exceedingly rare because they require vital statistics describing many generations of a population both unaffected by migration and exposed to an exogenous stressor virulent enough to change the sex ratio at birth. We contribute to the literature by using time-series modeling to detect oscillation in the best data currently available for such a test. METHODOLOGY: We apply rigorous time-series methods to data describing Sweden from 1751 through 1830, a period when the population not only aged in place without migration, but also exhibited the effects of an Icelandic volcanic eruption including a historically low secondary sex ratio. That very low sex ratio should have induced oscillation if heritable mechanisms appear in humans. RESULTS: We detected oscillation in the ratio but not that predicted by heritable tendencies to produce males or females. We found peak-to-trough oscillation at 14 rather than the approximately 32 years expected from the heritable tendencies argument. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Our findings suggest that mechanisms other than perturbation of heritable tendencies to produce males or females induce oscillation in the human secondary sex ratio. These other mechanisms may include reproductive suppression and selection in utero. LAY SUMMARY: The male to female ratio in human birth cohorts predicts longevity but its variation over time remains unexplained. We test the long-held theory that the ratio oscillates due to heritable tendencies to produce males or females. We find oscillation, but it appears due to social processes rather than heritable mechanisms.