COVID Lockdowns, Social Distancing, and Fatal Car Crashes: More Deaths on Hobbesian Highways?

RESEARCH QUESTION: What happened to US traffic safety during the first US COVID-19 lockdown, and why was the pattern the opposite of that observed in previous sudden declines of traffic volume? DATA: National and local statistics on US traffic volume, traffic fatalities, injury accidents, speeding violations, running of stop signs, and other indicators of vehicular driving behavior, both in 2020 and in previous US economic recessions affecting the volume of road traffic. METHODS: Comparative analysis of the similarities and differences between the data for the COVID-19 lockdown in parts of the USA in March 2020 and similar data for the 2008–2009 global economic crisis, as well as other US cases of major reductions in traffic volume. FINDINGS: The volume of traffic contracted sharply once a COVID-19 national emergency was declared and most states issued stay-at-home orders, but motor vehicle fatality rates, injury accidents, and speeding violations went up, and remained elevated even as traffic began returning toward normal. This pattern does not fit post-World War II recessions where fatality rates declined with the volume of traffic nor does the 2020 pattern match the pattern during World War II when traffic dropped substantially with little change in motor vehicle fatality rates. CONCLUSIONS: The findings are consistent with a theory of social distancing on highways undermining compliance with social norms, a social cost of COVID which, if not corrected, poses potential long-term increases in non-compliance and dangerous driving.