Effects of voluntary event cancellation and school closure as countermeasures against COVID-19 outbreak in Japan

BACKGROUND: To control the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, sports and entertainment events were canceled and schools were closed throughout Japan from February 26 through March 19. That policy has been designated as voluntary event cancellation and school closure (VECSC). OBJECT: This study assesses VECSC effectiveness based on predicted outcomes. METHODS: A simple susceptible–infected–recovered model was applied to data of patients with symptoms in Japan during January 14 through March 26. The respective reproduction numbers for periods before VECSC (R(0)), during VECSC (R(e)), and after VECSC (R(a)) were estimated. RESULTS: Results suggest R(0) before VECSC as 2.534 [2.449, 2.598], R(e) during VECSC as 1.077 [0.948, 1.228], and R(a) after VECSC as 4.455 [3.615, 5.255]. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Results demonstrated that VECSC can reduce COVID-19 infectiousness considerably, but after VECSC, the value of the reproduction number rose to exceed 4.0.