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Comparison of different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy
AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with a high risk of sudden cardiac death. Three different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) are now available: the 5 year ARVC risk score, the International Task Force Consensu...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7755004/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32965795 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.13019 |
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author | Aquaro, Giovanni Donato De Luca, Antonio Cappelletto, Chiara Raimondi, Francesca Bianco, Francesco Botto, Nicoletta Barison, Andrea Romani, Simona Lesizza, Pierluigi Fabris, Enrico Todiere, Giancarlo Grigoratos, Crysanthos Pingitore, Alessandro Stolfo, Davide Dal Ferro, Matteo Merlo, Marco Di Bella, Gianluca Sinagra, Gianfranco |
author_facet | Aquaro, Giovanni Donato De Luca, Antonio Cappelletto, Chiara Raimondi, Francesca Bianco, Francesco Botto, Nicoletta Barison, Andrea Romani, Simona Lesizza, Pierluigi Fabris, Enrico Todiere, Giancarlo Grigoratos, Crysanthos Pingitore, Alessandro Stolfo, Davide Dal Ferro, Matteo Merlo, Marco Di Bella, Gianluca Sinagra, Gianfranco |
author_sort | Aquaro, Giovanni Donato |
collection | PubMed |
description | AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with a high risk of sudden cardiac death. Three different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) are now available: the 5 year ARVC risk score, the International Task Force Consensus (ITFC) criteria, and the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS) criteria. We compared these three prediction models in a validation cohort of patients with definite ARVC. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a cohort of 140 patients with definite ARVC, the 5 year ARVC risk score and the ITFC and HRS criteria were compared for the prediction of a major combined endpoint of sudden cardiac death, appropriate ICD intervention, resuscitated cardiac arrest, and sustained ventricular tachycardia. During the follow‐up, 65 major events occurred. The 5 year ARVC risk score with a threshold >10%, derived from the maximally selected rank statistic, predicted 62 (95%) events [odds ratio (OR) 9.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6–32, P = 0.0006], the ITFC criteria 53 (81%, OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.2–10.3, P = 0.0001), and the HRS criteria 29 (45%, OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.9–9.3, P = 0.0003). At the analysis of decision curve for ICD implantation, a 5 year ARVC risk score >10% showed a greater net benefit than the ITFC and HRS criteria over a wide range of threshold probability of events. Finally, at multivariate analysis, the 5 year ARVC risk score >10% was the only independent predictor of major events. CONCLUSIONS: The 5 year score with a threshold of >10% was more effective for predicting events than the ITFC and HRS criteria. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7755004 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-77550042020-12-23 Comparison of different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy Aquaro, Giovanni Donato De Luca, Antonio Cappelletto, Chiara Raimondi, Francesca Bianco, Francesco Botto, Nicoletta Barison, Andrea Romani, Simona Lesizza, Pierluigi Fabris, Enrico Todiere, Giancarlo Grigoratos, Crysanthos Pingitore, Alessandro Stolfo, Davide Dal Ferro, Matteo Merlo, Marco Di Bella, Gianluca Sinagra, Gianfranco ESC Heart Fail Original Research Articles AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with a high risk of sudden cardiac death. Three different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) are now available: the 5 year ARVC risk score, the International Task Force Consensus (ITFC) criteria, and the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS) criteria. We compared these three prediction models in a validation cohort of patients with definite ARVC. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a cohort of 140 patients with definite ARVC, the 5 year ARVC risk score and the ITFC and HRS criteria were compared for the prediction of a major combined endpoint of sudden cardiac death, appropriate ICD intervention, resuscitated cardiac arrest, and sustained ventricular tachycardia. During the follow‐up, 65 major events occurred. The 5 year ARVC risk score with a threshold >10%, derived from the maximally selected rank statistic, predicted 62 (95%) events [odds ratio (OR) 9.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6–32, P = 0.0006], the ITFC criteria 53 (81%, OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.2–10.3, P = 0.0001), and the HRS criteria 29 (45%, OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.9–9.3, P = 0.0003). At the analysis of decision curve for ICD implantation, a 5 year ARVC risk score >10% showed a greater net benefit than the ITFC and HRS criteria over a wide range of threshold probability of events. Finally, at multivariate analysis, the 5 year ARVC risk score >10% was the only independent predictor of major events. CONCLUSIONS: The 5 year score with a threshold of >10% was more effective for predicting events than the ITFC and HRS criteria. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020-09-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7755004/ /pubmed/32965795 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.13019 Text en © 2020 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes. |
spellingShingle | Original Research Articles Aquaro, Giovanni Donato De Luca, Antonio Cappelletto, Chiara Raimondi, Francesca Bianco, Francesco Botto, Nicoletta Barison, Andrea Romani, Simona Lesizza, Pierluigi Fabris, Enrico Todiere, Giancarlo Grigoratos, Crysanthos Pingitore, Alessandro Stolfo, Davide Dal Ferro, Matteo Merlo, Marco Di Bella, Gianluca Sinagra, Gianfranco Comparison of different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy |
title | Comparison of different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy |
title_full | Comparison of different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy |
title_fullStr | Comparison of different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy |
title_full_unstemmed | Comparison of different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy |
title_short | Comparison of different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy |
title_sort | comparison of different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy |
topic | Original Research Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7755004/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32965795 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.13019 |
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