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Influence of Evacuation Policy on Clearance Time under Large-Scale Chemical Accident: An Agent-Based Modeling
Large-scale chemical accidents that occur near areas with large populations can cause significant damage not only to employees in a workplace but also to residents near the accident site. Despite the increasing frequency and severity of chemical accidents, few researchers have argued for the necessi...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7766801/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33339315 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17249442 |
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author | Kim, Minjun Cho, Gi-Hyoug |
author_facet | Kim, Minjun Cho, Gi-Hyoug |
author_sort | Kim, Minjun |
collection | PubMed |
description | Large-scale chemical accidents that occur near areas with large populations can cause significant damage not only to employees in a workplace but also to residents near the accident site. Despite the increasing frequency and severity of chemical accidents, few researchers have argued for the necessity of developing scenarios and simulation models for these accidents. Combining the TRANSIMS (Transportation Analysis and Simulation System) agent-based model with the ALOHA (Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres) dispersion model, this study aims to develop a modeling framework for simulating emergency evacuations in response to large-scale chemical accidents. The baseline accident scenario assumed the simultaneous leakage of toxic chemicals from industrial complexes near residential areas. The ALOHA model results showed that approximately 60% of residents in the scenario’s city were required to evacuate their homes. The majority of evacuees completed their evacuations within 5 h in the baseline scenario (evacuating maximum number of private vehicles without any intervention), while the distribution of the population and street network density caused geographical variability in clearance time. Clearance time can be significantly reduced by changing both the evacuees’ behaviors and the evacuation policy, which suggests the necessity for proper public intervention when the mass evacuation of residents is required due to chemical accidents. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7766801 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-77668012020-12-28 Influence of Evacuation Policy on Clearance Time under Large-Scale Chemical Accident: An Agent-Based Modeling Kim, Minjun Cho, Gi-Hyoug Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Large-scale chemical accidents that occur near areas with large populations can cause significant damage not only to employees in a workplace but also to residents near the accident site. Despite the increasing frequency and severity of chemical accidents, few researchers have argued for the necessity of developing scenarios and simulation models for these accidents. Combining the TRANSIMS (Transportation Analysis and Simulation System) agent-based model with the ALOHA (Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres) dispersion model, this study aims to develop a modeling framework for simulating emergency evacuations in response to large-scale chemical accidents. The baseline accident scenario assumed the simultaneous leakage of toxic chemicals from industrial complexes near residential areas. The ALOHA model results showed that approximately 60% of residents in the scenario’s city were required to evacuate their homes. The majority of evacuees completed their evacuations within 5 h in the baseline scenario (evacuating maximum number of private vehicles without any intervention), while the distribution of the population and street network density caused geographical variability in clearance time. Clearance time can be significantly reduced by changing both the evacuees’ behaviors and the evacuation policy, which suggests the necessity for proper public intervention when the mass evacuation of residents is required due to chemical accidents. MDPI 2020-12-16 2020-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7766801/ /pubmed/33339315 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17249442 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Kim, Minjun Cho, Gi-Hyoug Influence of Evacuation Policy on Clearance Time under Large-Scale Chemical Accident: An Agent-Based Modeling |
title | Influence of Evacuation Policy on Clearance Time under Large-Scale Chemical Accident: An Agent-Based Modeling |
title_full | Influence of Evacuation Policy on Clearance Time under Large-Scale Chemical Accident: An Agent-Based Modeling |
title_fullStr | Influence of Evacuation Policy on Clearance Time under Large-Scale Chemical Accident: An Agent-Based Modeling |
title_full_unstemmed | Influence of Evacuation Policy on Clearance Time under Large-Scale Chemical Accident: An Agent-Based Modeling |
title_short | Influence of Evacuation Policy on Clearance Time under Large-Scale Chemical Accident: An Agent-Based Modeling |
title_sort | influence of evacuation policy on clearance time under large-scale chemical accident: an agent-based modeling |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7766801/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33339315 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17249442 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT kimminjun influenceofevacuationpolicyonclearancetimeunderlargescalechemicalaccidentanagentbasedmodeling AT chogihyoug influenceofevacuationpolicyonclearancetimeunderlargescalechemicalaccidentanagentbasedmodeling |