Cargando…
Optimal strategies for social distancing and testing to control COVID-19
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has infected more than 79 million individuals, with 1.7 million deaths worldwide. Several countries have implemented social distancing and testing policies with contact tracing as a measure to flatten the curve of the ongoing pandemic. Optimizing these control meas...
Autores principales: | , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier Ltd.
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7772089/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33385403 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110568 |
_version_ | 1783629804639092736 |
---|---|
author | Choi, Wongyeong Shim, Eunha |
author_facet | Choi, Wongyeong Shim, Eunha |
author_sort | Choi, Wongyeong |
collection | PubMed |
description | The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has infected more than 79 million individuals, with 1.7 million deaths worldwide. Several countries have implemented social distancing and testing policies with contact tracing as a measure to flatten the curve of the ongoing pandemic. Optimizing these control measures is urgent given the substantial societal and economic impacts associated with infection and interventions. To determine the optimal social distancing and testing strategies, we developed a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission and applied optimal control theory, identifying the best approach to reduce the epidemiological burden of COVID-19 at a minimal cost. The results demonstrate that testing as a standalone optimal strategy does not have a significant effect on the final size of an epidemic, but it would delay the peak of the pandemic. If social distancing is the sole control strategy, it would be optimal to gradually increase the level of social distancing as the incidence curve of COVID-19 grows, and relax the measures after the curve has reached its peak. Compared with a single strategy, combined social distancing and testing strategies are demonstrated to be more efficient at reducing the disease burden, and they can delay the peak of the disease. To optimize these strategies, testing should be maintained at a maximum level in the early phases and after the peak of the epidemic, whereas social distancing should be intensified when the prevalence of the disease is greater than 15%. Accordingly, public health agencies should implement early testing and switch to social distancing when the incidence level begins to increase. After the peak of the pandemic, it would be optimal to gradually relax social distancing and switch back to testing. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7772089 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Elsevier Ltd. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-77720892020-12-30 Optimal strategies for social distancing and testing to control COVID-19 Choi, Wongyeong Shim, Eunha J Theor Biol Article The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has infected more than 79 million individuals, with 1.7 million deaths worldwide. Several countries have implemented social distancing and testing policies with contact tracing as a measure to flatten the curve of the ongoing pandemic. Optimizing these control measures is urgent given the substantial societal and economic impacts associated with infection and interventions. To determine the optimal social distancing and testing strategies, we developed a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission and applied optimal control theory, identifying the best approach to reduce the epidemiological burden of COVID-19 at a minimal cost. The results demonstrate that testing as a standalone optimal strategy does not have a significant effect on the final size of an epidemic, but it would delay the peak of the pandemic. If social distancing is the sole control strategy, it would be optimal to gradually increase the level of social distancing as the incidence curve of COVID-19 grows, and relax the measures after the curve has reached its peak. Compared with a single strategy, combined social distancing and testing strategies are demonstrated to be more efficient at reducing the disease burden, and they can delay the peak of the disease. To optimize these strategies, testing should be maintained at a maximum level in the early phases and after the peak of the epidemic, whereas social distancing should be intensified when the prevalence of the disease is greater than 15%. Accordingly, public health agencies should implement early testing and switch to social distancing when the incidence level begins to increase. After the peak of the pandemic, it would be optimal to gradually relax social distancing and switch back to testing. Elsevier Ltd. 2021-03-07 2020-12-30 /pmc/articles/PMC7772089/ /pubmed/33385403 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110568 Text en © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Choi, Wongyeong Shim, Eunha Optimal strategies for social distancing and testing to control COVID-19 |
title | Optimal strategies for social distancing and testing to control COVID-19 |
title_full | Optimal strategies for social distancing and testing to control COVID-19 |
title_fullStr | Optimal strategies for social distancing and testing to control COVID-19 |
title_full_unstemmed | Optimal strategies for social distancing and testing to control COVID-19 |
title_short | Optimal strategies for social distancing and testing to control COVID-19 |
title_sort | optimal strategies for social distancing and testing to control covid-19 |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7772089/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33385403 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110568 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT choiwongyeong optimalstrategiesforsocialdistancingandtestingtocontrolcovid19 AT shimeunha optimalstrategiesforsocialdistancingandtestingtocontrolcovid19 |