The joint prediction model of pBMI and eFBG in predicting gestational diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictive value of prepregnancy body mass index (pBMI) and early gestational fasting blood glucose (eFBG) in gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). METHODS: This case–control study enrolled pregnant women at 6 to 16 weeks of gestation. The pBMI, eFBG and glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) was recorded in the first trimester of pregnancy. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to measure the efficacy of factors that predict GDM. RESULTS: A total of 2119 pregnant women were enrolled in this study. Of these, 386 were diagnosed with GDM and 1733 did not have GDM. The age (odds ratio [OR] 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13, 1.20), pBMI (OR 1.12; 95% CI 1.07, 1.17) and eFBG (OR 5.37; 95% CI 3.93, 7.34) were independent risk factors for GDM occurrence. The areas under the ROC curve of eFBG, pBMI and eFBG + pBMI were 0.68 (95% credibility interval 0.65, 0.71), 0.66 (95% credibility interval 0.63, 0.69) and 0.71 (95% credibility interval 0.69, 0.74), respectively. The area under the curve of eFBG + pBMI was significantly higher than that of eFBG or pBMI alone. CONCLUSION: The combination of eFBG and pBMI had a high predictive value for GDM.